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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
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Bibliographic Detail
Publisher McClelland & Stewart Ltd
Publication date October 12, 2010
Pages 320
Binding Hardcover
Book category Adult Non-Fiction
ISBN-13 9780771035197
ISBN-10 0771035195
Availability§ Apply Direct
Published in Canada
Original list price $27.99
§As reported by publisher
Amazon.com says people who bought this book also bought:
Bullsh*t | Superforecasting | Misbehaving | Superforecasting | The End of Doom | Emotional Intelligence | Risk
Summaries and Reviews
Amazon.com description: Product Description: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Editions
Hardcover
Book cover for 9780771035197
 
The price comparison is for this edition
from McClelland & Stewart Ltd (October 12, 2010)
9780771035197 | details & prices | 320 pages | List price $27.99
About: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30.
Paperback
Book cover for 9780771035135
 
Reprint edition from Emblem Editions (September 27, 2011)
9780771035135 | details & prices | 305 pages | 5.25 × 8.25 × 0.75 in. | 0.68 lbs | List price $21.00
About: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30.
Miscellaneous
from McClelland & Stewart Ltd (October 12, 2010)
9780771035210 | details & prices | 320 pages | List price $27.99

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