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Tables of Contents for Earth System Analysis
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Part 1. Earth System Analysis--The Concept
3
216
Discourse: Earth System Analysis--The Scope of the Challenge
3
2
H.J. Schellnhuber
1 Prologue
5
7
2 Global Change: Quantity Turns into Quality
12
18
3 Global Environmental Management: The Physics and the Metaphysics
30
18
4 Sustainable Development: One + Four Paradigms
48
80
4.1 Standardization
56
11
4.2 Optimization
67
8
4.3 Pessimization
75
12
4.4 Equitization
87
10
4.5 Stabilization
97
24
4.5.1 Generalized Equilibria
103
8
4.5.2 Passage to Equilibrium
111
8
4.5.3 Quality of Passage
119
2
4.6 Complex Paradigms
121
7
5 Integrated Modelling: Exploring Virtual Planetary Futures
128
21
5.1 Integration and Integrity
134
10
5.2 Playing the Game
144
2
5.3 Orientators and Indicators: From Virtual to Real Reality
146
3
6 Fuzzy Control: Soft Decision Making under Uncertainty or A Tale of Two Demons
149
33
6.1 The Teleological Dream: Laplace's Demon and Contemporary Company
151
5
6.2 Newton's Root-Finding Method--a Paradigm for Fuzzy Control
156
9
6.3 Coping with Uncertainty: Grand Entrance of Maxwell's Demon
165
11
6.4 Fuzzy Control and Geo-Cybernetics
176
6
7 Epilogue
182
14
8 Commentary: Earth System Analysis--Explorations in a Research Frontier
196
10
Peter Nijkamp
1 Orientation
196
1
2 Substance
197
7
2.1 The human Factor
197
2
2.2 The social dilemma
199
3
2.3 Contingency strategies
202
2
3 Concluding remarks
204
2
Commentary: Surprises in the Climate Change Course
206
4
G.S. Golitsyn
1 Introduction
206
1
2 The Caspian Sea case
206
2
3 Modelling activities
208
1
4 Conclusions
208
2
Commentary: Sustainable Development--Teleology and Ambiguity
210
9
Volker Wenzel
1 Introductory: remarks
210
1
2 Semantic consideration
210
1
3 The role of values
211
1
4 Incompleteness
212
1
5 Standardization paradigm
213
1
6 Concluding remarks
214
5
Part 2. Natural Dimensions
219
84
Chapter 1: Ecology and the Earth System
219
32
Iain Colin Prentice
1 Introduction
219
1
2 Why global models?
220
2
3 Can ecology meet the challenge?
222
1
4 The tools of global ecological modelling
223
2
5 Patterns in the biosphere
225
1
6 Primary production and optimality
226
3
7 Equilibrium and transient responses
229
1
8 The validation problem
230
1
9 The uses of palaeodata
231
1
10 Conclusions
232
2
11 Acknowledgments
234
7
Commentary on "Ecology and the Earth System"
241
5
Gundolf H. Kohlmaier
1 Introduction
241
1
2 Boundary conditions for modelling the biosphere and the global carbon cycle
241
1
3 Feedbacks and time delays in dynamic systems
242
1
4 Vegetation models and climate
243
1
5 Dynamic vegetation models
244
1
6 Outlook
244
2
Commentary: Eco-System Modelling and the Social Sciences
246
5
Urs Luterbacher
Ellen Wiegandt
1 Introductory remarks
246
1
2 Global Change: an age old process
246
1
3 Origins of agriculture and links between climate change and human activities
247
1
4 Interdependencies between forms of social organization and the environment
248
1
5 Common vs. private property rights
248
1
6 The resulting research agenda
249
2
Chapter 2: Climate Change and Land Use: Global and Regional Analyses
251
26
M.L. Parry
C. Rosenzweig
J. E. Hossell
P. Jones
T. Rehmam
R. B. Tranter
J. S. Marsh
J. C. Taylor
1 Introduction
251
1
2 Effects on regional competitiveness and global prices
252
19
2.1 Modelling effects on crop yields
252
2
2.2 Modelling effects on food supply and prices, worldwide
254
1
2.3 Assumptions about the future
255
2
2.4 Altered potential cereal production and food prices
257
1
2.5 Effects on regional-level land use
257
3
2.6 The Land Use Classification System (LCS)
260
1
2.7 The Climate Land Use Allocation Model
260
3
2.8 Effects of climate change on agricultural potential in England and Wales
263
1
2.9 Land use in England and Wales in a future without climate change
263
1
2.10 Effects of climate changes on land use in England and Wales
264
7
3 Conclusion
271
2
Commentary: On the Inconsistency at the Interface of Climate Impact Studies and Global Climate Simulations
273
4
Martin Claussen
1 Introductory remarks
273
1
2 The problem of spatial scales
273
2
3 The problem of climate variability
275
1
4 Summary
276
1
Chapter 3: Sustainable Development in Agricultural Landscapes
277
26
Heidrun Muhle
1 Introduction
277
1
2 The Principle of sustainability in a cultural landscape
278
1
3 The role of agricultural landscapes within cultural landscapes
279
2
4 The application of mathematical models in research of agroecosystems
281
7
Commentary on "Sustainable Development in Agricultural Landscapes"
288
7
Siegfried Bauer
1 Introductory remarks on sustainable development
288
1
2 Profit oriented versus ecological oriented behaviour
289
1
3 Main environmental problems in agriculture and their causes
290
1
4 Main elements for a market oriented environmental policy in agriculture
291
2
5 Some more general remarks on research and policy
293
1
6 Linking natural science with economic models
294
1
Commentary: Towards a Socially Accepted, Sustainable Management of Agricultural Landscapes
295
8
Felix Kienast
1 Introductory remarks
295
1
2 Are models of the physical system sufficient to ensure sustainable land use?
295
1
3 What documents are necessary to assess risk perception patterns of practitioners and lays?
295
3
4 Conclusions
298
5
Part 3. Human Dimensions
303
78
Chapter 1: Modelling Global Environmental Change: Improving Human Dimensions Components
303
18
Harold K. Jacobson
1 Introduction
303
1
2 Modelling in current global environmental change research
304
4
3 Modelling in the social sciences
308
1
4 The necessity of following a modular approach
309
5
5 Can institutional effects be included?
314
4
6 Conclusion
318
3
Chapter 2: Internationally Tradeable Emission Certificates--Efficiency and Equity in Linking Environmental Protection with Economic Development
321
22
Udo E. Simonis
1 Introduction: the idea and its political context
321
1
2 Theoretical context
322
8
2.1 International emission charges
323
2
2.2 Joint implementation
325
3
2.3 Internationally tradeable emission certificates
328
2
3 From theory to practice
330
4
3.1 Market organization
330
1
3.2 Rules of procedure
331
1
3.3 Allocation of certificates
332
2
4 Conclusions
334
3
4.1 Acknowledgements
335
2
Commentary: Criteria for an Equitable Distribution of Internationally Tradeable Emission Certificates
337
6
Carsten Helm
1 Introductory remarks
337
1
2 Structuring the equity issues of climate change
337
2
3 An axiomatic approach to equity
339
1
4 Outlook
340
3
Chapter 3: New Models of Wealth
343
16
Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker
1 Introduction
343
1
2 Interdependence between prosperity and ecology
343
2
3 New model of wealth
345
1
4 Costs and quantities
345
1
5 "Factor Four"
346
5
Commentary on "New Models of Wealth"
351
3
Hans-Jurgen Bolle
1 Introductory remarks
351
1
2 Two questions
351
1
3 Categories of threats
351
1
4 Global vs. regional "logics"
352
1
5 Synergetic approach for research and management
352
1
6 The possible role of a global model
353
1
7 Concluding remarks
353
1
Commentary on "New Models of Wealth"
354
5
Gyula Bora
1 Introductory remarks
354
1
2 Ecological taxes
354
1
3 Energy efficiency in Hungary
355
1
4 Accelerated technology transfer
355
1
5 Range of commodity flow
356
1
6 Limitations
356
1
7 Concluding remarks
357
2
Chapter 4: Urban Metabolism and Disaster Vulnerability in an Era
359
22
James K. Mitchell
1 Introduction: Global Change hazards and disasters
359
1
2 Cities and natural disasters in a changing world.
360
1
3 Cities and the expanding human role in environmental transformation
360
1
4 An Approaching urban millennium
361
1
5 Disaster-forcing attributes of urbanization
362
1
6 Changes in the process of urbanization
363
5
7 The emergence of complex urban hazards
368
2
8 Synergistic problems of disaster in modern megacities
370
2
9 Complex urban issues in disaster's wake
372
1
10 Conclusions
373
1
11 Notes
374
7
Part 4. Integration for Sustainability
381
134
Chapter 1: Multi-actor Optimization of Greenhouse Gas Emission Paths Using Coupled Integral Climate Response and Economic Models
381
40
K. Hasselmann
S. Hasselmann
1 Introduction
381
4
2 The SIAM Single-actor model
385
10
2.1 The general impulse-response climate model
385
2
2.2 Reduction to global mean temperature
387
3
2.3 Numerical values
390
1
2.4 The cost function
391
3
2.5 Results of the one-actor SIAM model
394
1
3 Non-trading multi-actor models
395
6
3.1 Identical actors
396
2
3.2 The single mitigator problem
398
3
4 Multi-actor models with trade
401
4
4.1 The Cournot-Nash equilibrium
402
1
4.2 The self-consistent interactive Nash equilibrium
403
1
4.3 The conjectured response Nash equilibrium
403
1
4.4 Numerical determination of interactive Nash equilibrium solutions
404
1
5 Two-actor interactions between fossil-fuel suppliers and consumers
405
7
6 Conclusions
412
4
6.1 Acknowledgements
413
3
Commentary: Short Remarks on the Problem of Integrated Modelling
416
2
Arkadii Maltsev
1 Introductory remarks
416
1
2 Large vs. simplified climate models
416
1
3 The human ecological niche
416
1
4 The example of the Caspian Sea
417
1
Commentary: Global Environment and Society (GES) Models, a Problem of Multiple Control Theory
418
3
Otto Franzle
1 Introduction
418
1
2 Calibration and validation of models
418
1
3 Scaling problems in ecological modelling
419
1
4 Modelling of social systems
419
1
5 Conclusion
420
1
Chapter 2: Global Change and Sustainable Development: Towards an Integrated Conceptual Model
421
40
Jan Rotmans
1 Introduction
421
1
2 Global Change
422
1
3 Sustainable Development
423
1
4 An integrated systems approach
424
3
5 The TARGETS model: an integrated framework for appraising global change and sustainable Development
427
10
5.1 Basic philosophy
427
2
5.2 Global models
429
1
5.3 Top-down approach
430
1
5.4 Horizontal integrative description of TARGETS
431
2
5.5 Vertical integrative description of TARGETS
433
4
5.6 The global water model AQUA
437
1
6 Calibration and validation
437
2
7 A hierarchical framework of indicators
439
3
8 Strategies for Sustainable Development
442
1
9 Uncertainties
443
1
10 Various perspectives
444
5
10.1 Introduction
444
1
10.2 Scientific perspectives
444
3
10.3 Cultural perspectives
447
2
11 Conclusions and expected results
449
5
Commentary on "Global change and sustainable development"
454
2
Max Tilzer
1 Introductory remarks
454
1
2 What is global change?
454
1
3 Natural versus anthropogenic changes
454
1
4 The role of humankind in global change
455
1
5 What is sustainable development?
455
1
6 Which future is acceptable?
455
1
7 Ecosystems and socio-economic systems
455
1
Commentary on "Global Change and Sustainable Development"
456
5
W. Windhorst
1 Introductory remarks
456
1
2 Are global approaches necessary?
456
1
3 How to enhance the acceptability of global approaches
457
1
4 Are there additional conditions for success?
457
1
5 Communication and co-operation
457
4
Chapter 3: From a Fictional Globe to POETic Ecosystems: Modelling Human Interactions with the Environment
461
32
Richard C. Rockwell
1 Introduction
461
1
2 The concept of a global system
462
2
3 The lack of comparable global processes in the social domain
464
1
4 Demographic projections of global population growth
465
3
5 Global projections are fallible in regional context
468
3
6 Carrying capacity and human will
471
3
7 On building a less-fallible population growth model for Africa
474
1
8 Linking meso-scale models into a global system of models
475
1
9 Units of data collection, sampling designs, modelling, and the scope of generalizations
476
2
10 The nation-state as the presumptive modelling unit
478
3
11 Modelling of land-use/land-cover changes
481
2
12 The POETic ecosystem
483
1
13 Conclusions and a postscript
484
4
Commentary on "Modelling Human Interactions with the Environment"
488
2
Lenelis Kruse-Graumann
1 Introductory remarks
488
1
2 Social aspects: an indispensable facet of bottom-up approaches
488
2
Commentary on "Modelling Human Interactions with the Environment"
490
3
Tillmann Mohr
1 Introductory remarks
490
1
2 Dimensions of data requirement for a "set of models"
490
3
Chapter 4: Is Global Modelling Feasible?
493
22
Hans-Peter Durr
1 Introductory remarks
493
2
2 The basic structure of reality
495
1
3 The effective structure of macroscopic systems
496
5
4 Is global modelling possible?
501
1
5 Can there be working models such as to assist planetary engineering?
502
2
6 Closing remarks
504
1
Commentary on "Is Global Modelling Feasible?"
505
3
Lennart Bengtsson
1 Introductory remarks
505
1
2 What about climate prediction?
506
1
3 Climate prediction of the first kind
506
1
4 Climate prediction of the second kind
506
2
Commentary on "Is Global Modelling Feasible?"
508
7
Wolf-Dieter Eberwein
1 Introductory remarks
508
1
2 Four interrelated global issues
508
1
3 The evolution of global modelling
509
2
4 What can we learn from past experience?
511
1
4.1 Formal aspects
511
1
4.2 The adequate level(s) of analysis
511
1
4.3 Time horizon
511
1
4.4 Human behavior
512
1
5 Looking ahead
512
1
6 A short summary
513
2
Glossary
515
1
Register of Persons
516
9
Subject Index
525