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Tables of Contents for Economic Forecasting for Management
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Illustrations
vii
Preface
xi
Part I: Forecasting and Futures Research---An Unequal Pair
Fundamentals of Human Behavior
3
16
Dimensions of Forecasting
19
22
Evaluation Criteria
41
4
The Discrepancy between Reality and Forecast
45
4
A Common Language
49
10
Part II: Long-Term Economic Forecasting
Investigation Subject and Aim of Perception
59
6
The Evolution of Economies
65
8
Impossibility of (Long-Term) Forecasting
73
6
Macroeconomic Perspectives
79
8
Methods for Long-Term Forecasting
87
14
Working with Global Models---Learning and Predicting
101
12
Delphi Technique
113
4
Cross-Impact Analysis
117
6
Part III: Scenarios for Strategy Development
Scenarios as a Reflection of Integrated Management
123
8
Scenarios as Instruments of Forecasting
131
12
Working with Scenarios at the Corporate Level
143
6
Introduction of Scenario Thinking in Corporate Policy
149
12
Part IV: Short-Term Economic and Market Forecasting
Investigation Subject and Aim of Perception
161
10
Business Cycle Forecasting
171
16
Market Forecasting
187
6
Forecasting on the Basis of Time Series Analyses
193
8
Operating with Growth and Life Cycle Curves
201
6
Forecasts Based on the Theory of Cause and Effect
207
8
Transformation of Market Forecasts into Corporate Decisions
215
12
In Place of Closing Remarks: What Must Be Looked Out for in Economic Forecasting?
227
4
Bibliography
231
10
Index
241