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Tables of Contents for Clear Thinking With Psychology
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Preface
xiii
Challenging Widely Accepted Claims
xiii
Empowering Students to Evalute Claims for Themselves
xv
Distinguishing Science from Pseudoscience
xv
Teaching Scientific Reasoning Skills
xv
Using Memorable Examples
xvi
Exploring Material Relevant to Many Courses
xvi
Broad Coverage Is Complemented by Electronic Resources
xvi
Acknowledgments
xvii
About the Author
xviii
Evaluating Sources Whether in Print or on the World Wide Web
xix
Sharpening and Leveling
xx
Criteria for Evaluating the Quality of Sources
xxi
Popularity
xxi
Reviews
xxii
The Internet as a Research Tool
xxiii
The Content of Web Sites
xxiii
Internet Searches
xxiv
Thinking for Yourself
xxv
Introduction: Pseudoscience and the Need for Clear Thinking
1
15
Separating Sense from Nonsense
3
3
Studying Human Reasoning
3
1
Systematic Errors Reveal Our Mental Shortcuts
4
1
The Pros and Cons of Relying on Shortcuts
5
1
Thinking Clearly
5
1
Applying the Tools of Clear Thinking
6
1
Ten Characteristics of Pseudoscience
6
4
Outward Appearance of Science
6
1
Absence of Skeptical Peer Review
7
1
Reliance on Personal Experience
7
1
Evasion of Risky Tests
8
1
Retreats to the Supernatural
8
1
The Mantra of Holism
8
1
Tolerance of Inconsistencies
9
1
Appeals to Authority
9
1
Promising the Impossible
9
1
Stagnation
10
1
The Plan of This Book
10
6
Deception
11
1
Self-Deception
11
1
Psychological Tricks
12
1
Decision Making and Ethics
13
3
Part One Deception
Language: Misleading and Evasive Tactics
16
14
Weasel Words and Framing Effects
16
4
Cooperation and Conversational Maxims
20
7
Quality: The Myth of ``Health Food''
20
1
Quantity: Suggestive and Leading Questions
21
2
Relation: The Irrelevant Language of ``Alternative'' Health Care
23
2
Manner: The Emptiness of ``Holism''
25
2
Closing Thoughts: False Dichotomies and the Slippery Slope
27
3
Magic: The Allure of Exotic Rituals, Fantasy, and Mysticism
30
12
Believing in Magic
31
1
Wishful Thinking
31
2
Belief in a Vitalistic Energy
33
1
Putting the ``Human Energy Field'' to the Test
34
1
The Creation of Superstitions and Exotic Rituals
35
2
Superstitions as Representative Thinking
37
1
Maintenance of Superstitions
38
1
Abuses of Science in Favor of Mysticism
39
1
The Magic of Modern Technology
40
2
Authority: Appeals to Blind Obedience
42
14
Milgram's Obedience Research
42
3
Understanding Milgram's Results
45
1
When Should We Obey?
46
1
Untrustworthy Authorities
47
3
The ``Ancient Wisdom'' Fallacy
47
1
The Popularity Fallacy
48
1
The Fallacy of Self-Proclaimed Expertise
48
2
Political Lobbying as a Warning Flag
50
6
The National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine
50
2
The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act
52
4
Part Two Self-Deception
Experience: The Limitations of Testimonials as Evidence
56
12
Self-Deception
57
1
Competing Explanations
58
7
The Placebo Effect
58
2
Spontaneous Remission
60
1
The Disease Ran Its Natural Course
60
1
The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases
61
1
Misdiagnosis
61
1
The ``Worried Well''
61
1
Symptomatic Relief
62
1
Hedged Bets
62
1
Derivative Benefits
62
1
Psychological Distortion of Reality
63
1
The Bottom Line
64
1
Probabilistic General Principles
65
3
Plausibility: All Beliefs Are Not Created Equal
68
12
Magnet Therapy: Claims Versus Reality
69
3
Magnets and Water
70
1
Magnets and the Human Body
71
1
The Strength of ``Therapeutic'' Magnets
71
1
Homeopathy: Empty Promises
72
3
The Law of Similars
72
1
The Law of Infinitesimals
73
1
Evasive Maneuver #1: Lowering the Dilution Factor
74
1
Evasive Maneuver #2: ``Water Memory''
74
1
Alien Abductions: A Modern-Day Misunderstanding
75
5
The Contamination Effect
75
2
Dull Fantasies and Contradictions
77
1
Sleep Paralysis
78
2
Association: Establishing and Interpreting Correlations
80
12
Presuming an Association Through Mere Examples
82
1
Presuming an Association Through a Lone Rate
83
1
Interpreting a Correlation
84
4
Causal Relationships Between Correlated Events
84
1
Three Conditions for Causality
85
1
Examining Patterns Across Multiple Correlations
86
2
Beware the Media
88
2
Do Horoscopes Predict Anything?
90
2
Science: Evaluating Claims to Knowledge
92
14
Scientific Reasoning
93
5
Falsifiability
93
1
Logic
94
1
Comprehensiveness
95
1
Honesty
95
1
Replicability
96
1
Sufficiency
97
1
Antiscientific Beliefs: Postmodernism and Other Fallacious Ideas
98
5
Postmodernism
98
3
The ``What Works Is Different for Everybody'' Fallacy
101
1
The ``Probability Is Irrelevant to the Unique Individual'' Fallacy
102
1
The Rejection of Science as a Pseudoscientist's Dream
103
3
Part Three Psychological Tricks
Risk: Biased Perceptions and the Media Paradox
106
9
Vividness
106
2
Availability
108
1
The Media Paradox
109
2
Falling Airplane Parts Revisited
111
1
A Radical Conjecture
112
1
Mindful Attention to Media Reports
113
2
Belief: Confirmation Bias, Post-Hockery, and Overconfidence
115
14
Discovery Versus Verification: The Importance of Prediction
116
4
The Bible Code
116
2
The ``Hot Hand'' in Basketball
118
2
Confirmation Bias
120
5
The Rorschach Ink Blot Test
121
1
Graphology: Handwriting Analysis
122
1
Polygraphy: The ``Lie Detector'' Test
122
3
Absent or Misleading Feedback
125
1
Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence
126
1
Foiling Post-Hockery
127
1
Answers to the Confidence Quiz
128
1
Schemes: The Seductiveness of Grand Conspiracy Theories
129
11
The Three Roles in a Conspiracy Theory
129
2
Conspirators
129
1
Saviors
130
1
Dupes
130
1
A Grand Conspiracy Theory: ``Area 51''
131
2
The Role of the Media
131
1
Thinking Clearly About Area 51
132
1
Problems Facing Any Grand Conspiracy Theory
133
1
The ``Hidden Cure'' Conspiracy
134
4
Intense Competition Is Ignored
135
1
The Alleged Profit Motive Makes No Sense
135
1
Science Is Never Going to Cure All Disease
136
1
Monumental Callousness Is Presumed
136
1
Why Does the Theory of Hidden Cures Persist?
137
1
Challenging Conspiracies
138
2
Illusions: The Perception of Control
140
12
The Illusion of Control
141
1
The Certainty Effect
142
1
The Dangers of Illusions of Control
143
2
Belief in the ``Just World'' and the Blaming of Victims
143
1
Self-Blame
144
1
Learned Helplessness
145
1
The Downside to Mental Imagery
145
1
The ``Choose to Be Healthy'' Fallacy
146
2
Prayer and Religion-Motivated Medical Neglect
148
4
Part Four Decision Making and Ethics
Assessment: Classical Decision Theory
152
13
Mammograms
154
1
Classical Decision Theory
155
1
The Impact of Low Base Rates
156
1
Lie Detection
157
1
Two Different Perspectives on Accuracy
158
1
The Impact of Selection Ratios
159
1
Nutritional Scams
160
3
Validity
160
1
Base Rates
161
1
Selection Ratio
162
1
Protecting Against Professional Misconduct
163
2
Decisions: Clinical Versus Statistical Approaches
165
14
Two Approaches to Decision Making
166
1
Why Is the Statistical Approach Superior?
167
5
Validity
168
1
Units of Measurement
168
1
Reliability
169
1
Redundancy
170
1
Regression Effects
171
1
Adherence to the Clinical Approach
172
4
Knowledge Deficit
172
1
Fear of Computers
172
1
Fear of Unemployment
173
1
Belief in the Efficacy of One's Judgment
173
1
Theoretical Identifications
174
1
The ``Dehumanizing'' Feel of Statistical Equations
175
1
Mistaken Conception of Ethics
175
1
Embracing Statistical Decisions
176
3
Pro/Con Lists
176
1
Professional Practice
176
2
Statistics Do Apply to the Individual
178
1
Ethics: The Use and Promotion of Unverified Treatments
179
13
Overlooking the Obvious in Favor of the Unlikely
179
1
Repressed Memories and Multiple Personalities
180
6
Cost-Benefit Ratio
186
2
Skewed Projections of Benefit and Harm
186
1
The Overlooked Opportunity Costs
187
1
Truly Informed Consent and Patient Autonomy
188
2
The ``Health Freedom'' Fallacy
190
2
Tools: Suggestions for Clear Thinking
192
11
The Dangers of a Pseudoscientific Approach to Health Care
194
1
Thinking Clearly
195
6
Reconceptualize Issues in Multiple Ways
195
1
Beware of Wishful Thinking
196
1
Consider the Legitimacy of Authorities
196
1
Seek Risky Tests, Not Weak Confirmation
196
1
Don't Be Misled by Testimonials
196
1
Keep in Touch with Reality
197
1
Remember That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation
197
1
Beware the Media Paradox
197
1
Formulate Multiple Working Hypotheses
198
1
Ask What Can Be Predicted
198
1
Challenge Conspiracy Theories
198
1
Watch Out for Illusions of Control
198
1
Be Careful Not to Blame Victims
199
1
Consider Both Positive and Negative Consequences of a Claim
199
1
Pay Attention to Base Rates
199
1
Accept Some Mistakes in Order to Minimize Error
199
1
Take Advantage of the Power of Statistical Decision Making
200
1
Don't Misinterpret Regression Toward the Mean
200
1
Consider Both Costs and Benefits
200
1
Practice Scientific Reasoning
201
1
A Closing Thought on Wishful Thinking
201
2
References
203
14
Index
217