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Tables of Contents for Climates of the British Isles
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
List of Plates
xii
1
List of Figures
xiii
1
List of Tables
xix
2
List of Contributors
xxi
4
Preface
xxv
2
Foreword
xxvii
3
Acknowledgements
xxx
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCING CLIMATE CHANGE
1
8
Mike Hulme
Elaine Barrow
Changing Views of Climate
1
3
Outline of the Book
4
5
PART 1: THE BRITISH ISLES CLIMATE
9
54
CHAPTER 2: EXPLAINING THE CLIMATE OF THE BRITISH ISLES
11
22
Trevor Davies
P. Mick Kelly
Tim Osborn
Introduction
11
1
Global-scale Radiation and Heat Balances
12
4
The General Circulation
16
9
Surface Pressure Patterns
25
1
Links with the Ocean
26
3
Air Masses
29
1
Smaller Weather Systems and Local Influences
30
1
The Scene is Set
31
2
CHAPTER 3: DESCRIBING THE SURFACE CLIMATE OF THE BRITISH ISLES
33
30
Elaine Barrow
Mike Hulme
Introduction
33
1
Surface Air Temperature
33
8
Precipitation: Amount and Frequency
41
6
Other Climate Variables: Sunshine, Humidity and Wind Speed
47
6
Regional Climates
53
8
Summary
61
2
PART 2: RECONSTRUCTING THE PAST
63
72
CHAPTER 4: THE CLIMATES OF PAST AGES
65
19
Brian Funnell
Introduction
65
1
Climate in the Pre-Cenozoic Era
66
2
The Approach to the Present Ice Age
68
2
The Present Ice Age
70
3
Glacial Cycles in the British Isles
73
1
The Last Interglacial-Glacial Cycle
74
6
Conclusions
80
4
CHAPTER 5: RECONSTRUCTING LATE-GLACIAL AND HOLOCENE CLIMATES
84
28
Keith Briffa
Tim Atkinson
Introduction
84
3
The End of the Last Great Ice Age
87
5
The Younger Dryas in the British Isles
92
6
The Holocene Period
98
9
Conclusions
107
5
CHAPTER 6: DOCUMENTING THE MEDIEVAL CLIMATE
112
23
Astrid Ogilvie
Graham Farmer
Introduction
112
1
The Importance of Source Analysis
113
2
The Sources and Data
115
2
Strategy and Methodology
117
2
Presentation of the Data
119
1
Sea-ice Incidence in the North Atlantic
120
10
Conclusions
130
5
PART 3: MONITORING THE PRESENT
135
162
CHAPTER 7: OBSERVING AND MEASURING THE WEATHER: A BRIEF HISTORY
137
16
John Kington
Introduction
137
1
The Pre-instrumental Period
137
2
The Beginning of Instrumental Observing
139
5
The Advent of the Modern Instrumental Period
144
5
Today's World of Observations
149
1
The Role of the Amateur Observer
150
3
CHAPTER 8: CLASSIFYING THE WINDS AND WEATHER
153
20
P. Mick Kelly
Phil Jones
Keith Briffa
Introduction
153
1
Weather Types
154
1
The Lamb Classification
155
2
Relationships with Temperature, Precipitation and Other Weather Variables
157
8
The Annual Cycle in the Circulation over the British Isles
165
3
The Past Record of Circulation Changes
168
1
Towards More Detailed Classification
169
4
CHAPTER 9: THE CHANGING TEMPERATURE OF `CENTRAL ENGLAND'
173
24
Phil Jones
Mike Hulme
Introduction
173
1
Historical Variability of Temperature
174
9
Relationships Between CET and Atmospheric Circulation
183
1
Relationships Between CET and Northern Hemisphere Temperatures
184
5
Daily Temperature Variability
189
6
Conclusions
195
2
CHAPTER 10: PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY AND DROUGHT
197
23
Phil Jones
Declan Conway
Keith Briffa
Introduction
197
1
The Geographical Variability of Precipitation
198
1
The Historical Variability of Precipitation
199
4
Daily Precipitation Variability
203
8
Snowfall
211
3
Droughts
214
4
Conclusions
218
2
CHAPTER 11: WIND: RESOURCE AND HAZARD
220
23
Jean Palutikof
Tom Holt
Andrew Skellern
Introduction
220
1
Wind Climatology of the British Isles
220
3
Wind as a Resource: The Analysis of Average Wind Speeds
223
9
Wind as a Hazard: Storms and High Wind Speeds
232
8
Conclusions
240
3
CHAPTER 12: THE AIR THAT WE BREATHE: SMOGS, SMOKE AND HEALTH
243
19
Peter Brimblecombe
Graham Bentham
Introduction
243
1
Early History of Air Pollution
243
2
The Twentieth Century
245
1
The Pollutants
246
7
Indoor Air Pollution
253
4
Health Issues
257
2
The Future
259
3
CHAPTER 13: `PHEW! WHAT A SCORCHER': WEATHER RECORDS AND EXTREMES
262
35
Michael Dukes
Philip Eden
Introduction
262
1
Pitfalls in the Study of Extremes
262
3
Summer Heat Waves and Winter Warmth
265
3
Freezing Winters and Cool Summers
268
4
Deluge and Drought
272
7
Snowfalls, Blizzards and Ice-storms
279
6
Severe Gales and Record Gusts
285
3
Smogs, Fogs and Record Sunshine
288
5
Conclusions
293
4
PART 4: FORECASTING THE FUTURE
297
121
CHAPTER 14: FORECASTING THE BRITISH ISLES WEATHER
299
27
Clive Pierce
Michael Dukes
Graham Parker
Introduction
299
1
A Historical Perspective
300
7
Weather Forecasting Today
307
8
Numerical Weather Prediction Models
315
3
Practical Weather Forecasting: The Human-Machine Mix
318
1
Weather Service Provision
319
3
Weather Forecasting: The Future
322
4
CHAPTER 15: GLOBAL WARMING AND THE BRITISH ISLES
326
14
Sarah Raper
David Viner
Mike Hulme
Elaine Barrow
Introduction
326
1
The Greenhouse Effect
326
4
Global and Regional Climate Change
330
5
Climate Change in the British Isles
335
1
How Climate Change Might Affect the British Isles
335
3
Conclusions
338
2
CHAPTER 16: CLIMATE BEYOND THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
340
19
Clare Goodess
Jean Palutikof
Introduction
340
1
Predicting Climate Thousands of Years into the Future
341
1
The Past as a Guide to the Future
341
2
Modelling the Next Glacial-Interglacial Cycle
343
4
Anthropogenic Effects: Why the Future Won't be Like the Past
347
6
Contradictions and Uncertainties
353
2
Climate Research: The Next Twenty-five Years
355
4
APPENDICES
359
59
A Climate Maps of the British Isles
360
5
B The Lamb Catalogue, 1972-95
365
25
C The Daily Central England Temperature, 1961-95
390
13
D Listings of Climate Datasets
403
15
Glossary
418
9
Name index
427
3
Index of place names
430
4
General index
434