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Tables of Contents for From Anticipation to Action
Chapter/Section Title
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1. FOR ANOTHER FUTURE
1
28
1 Dreams create reality
1
5
1.1 The dangers of being reactive and the benefits of being pre-active and pro-active
1
1
1.2 Using intuition and reason for planning and action
2
1
1.3 From anticipation to action by means of appropriation
3
1
1.4 Contingency and change: 1,001 keys to excellence
4
1
1.5 Towards a revival of planning
5
1
2 Schools of prospective: models which endure in spite of fashion
6
9
2.1 The post-industrial school, between optimism and pessimism
6
1
2.2 The neo-Malthusian school of thought
7
1
2.3 Long waves and crises as bearers of hope
8
2
2.4 Bifurcations, determinism and creativity of chaos
10
3
2.5 Mutineers and mutants as the bearers of change
13
2
3 Schools of strategy: contradictory fashions, complementary models
15
10
3.1 The heuristic school: from common sense to the simplistic
16
3
3.2 The rationalist school: from success to misuse, pending a revival
19
1
3.3 Stop bad American soaps and Japanese curios
20
5
4 Spreading the cultures of prospective and strategy
25
1
5 One logic in ten chapters
26
3
2. FROM DETERMINISM TO DETERMINATION, FROM FORECASTING TO 'STRATEGIC PROSPECTIVE'
29
28
1 Action-oriented anti-fatalistic thinking
29
3
2 A critique of forecasting
32
6
2.1 Definitions
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2
2.2 Inaccurate data and unstable models
34
1
2.3 Excessive quantification and extrapolation
34
2
2.4 The future explained in terms of the past
36
2
3 Usefulness and scope of prospective
38
3
3.1 Usefulness and credibility of prospective analysis
38
1
3.2 What ingredients go into making an accurate forecast?
39
1
3.3 What makes a good expert?
39
1
3.4 The absence of neutrality of information and forecasts
40
1
4 Pluralism and complementarity
41
6
4.1 Problems and methods
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3
4.2 Planning needs forecasts with scenarios
44
1
4.3 Proposals for solving the crisis in forecasting
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2
4.4 Key concepts for a methodology
47
1
5 Practical advice for future thinking
47
10
5.1 Ask the right questions and mistrust conventional wisdom
47
2
5.2 Think in the long term and imagine first what will not change
49
1
5.3 Use simple, adaptable methods to stimulate thought and facilitate communication
50
1
5.4 Start with prospective workshops
51
2
5.5 Practical guidelines for prospective groups
53
4
3. THE SCENARIOS METHOD
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26
1 Origins and definitions
57
3
2 Types of scenarios and strategies
60
3
3 Objectives of the scenarios method
63
11
3.1 Construction of the base
64
3
3.2 Building scenarios
67
7
4 Illustrations
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5
4.1 Scenarios as tools of strategy and/or management
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3
4.2 Successful utilization of scenarios-the case of Elf
77
2
5 Anticipation and scenarios: myths and realities
79
4
4. IDENTIFYING THE KEY VARIABLES: STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS
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22
1 Origins and objectives of structural analysis
83
1
2 Listing all the variables
84
1
3 Location of relationships within the structural analysis matrix
85
5
4 Search for the key variables with the MICMAC(R) method
90
11
4.1 Direct and indirect classification (MICMAC(R))
91
2
4.2 The MICMAC(R) principle: raising the power of the matrix
93
3
4.3 Comparison between direct, indirect and potential classifications
96
3
4.4 The influence-dependence chart
99
2
5 Value and limitations of structural analysis
101
2
5. UNDERSTANDING THE ACTORS' STRATEGIES: THE MACTOR(C) METHOD
105
24
1 Constructing the actors' strategy table
108
3
2 Identifying the strategic issues and associated objectives
111
2
3 Positioning each actor in relation to the strategic objectives (signed position matrix)
113
2
4 Ranking the objectives for each actor (valued position matrix) and assessing the range of possible convergences and divergences
115
4
5 Evaluating the balance of power and formulating strategic recommendations (valued matrix of position with power coefficients)
119
7
6 Key questions for the future
126
3
6. REDUCING UNCERTAINTY: EXPERT CONSENSUS METHODS
129
42
1 Scanning possible futures: morphological analysis
130
4
1.1 The field of possible futures, a morphological space
130
2
1.2 Problems and limitations
132
1
1.3 The useful morphological subspace
132
2
2 An inventory of expert-consensus methods
134
8
2.1 The Delphi method
134
3
2.2 Voting machines: Regnier's Abacus and the Consensor
137
2
2.3 Cross-impact methods
139
3
3 The SMIC method
142
8
3.1 The principle and the aim of SMIC
143
1
3.2 Relationships between hypotheses and scenarios: the search for coherence
144
2
3.3 Results: hierarchy of scenarios and sensitivity analysis
146
2
3.4 Applicability and limitations
148
2
4 Case-studies
150
1
4.1 Air transport scenarios
151
7
4.2 Nuclear energy scenarios to the year 2000
158
5
4.3 Excerpts from the SMIC questionnaire
163
8
7. IDENTIFYING AND EVALUATING STRATEGIC OPTIONS
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36
1 The decision process: identify, evaluate, choose and implement
171
3
2 Relevance trees: from objectives to action
174
4
2.1 The qualitative hierarchy: aims, objectives, means and action
174
2
2.2 Flow chart notation and action evaluation
176
2
2.3 Usefulness and limitations
178
1
3 Classical methods for options evaluating
178
4
4 Multicriteria methods
182
7
4.1 Aid to decision-making
183
1
4.2 Listing possible actions
184
1
4.3 Analysis of the consequences of actions
185
1
4.4 Defining criteria and evaluating actions in terms of these criteria
185
1
4.5 Definition of policies and ranking actions
186
1
4.6 Multicriteria decisions in strategic management
187
1
4.7 Sophisticated tools, limited applications
188
1
5 The method of comparative reverse ranking
189
4
5.1 The reverse ranking rules
190
1
5.2 The ranking of actions
190
3
6 The Electre II method
193
4
6.1 'Super-ranking' relationships
193
2
6.2 The ranking of actions
195
2
6.3 Conclusion
197
1
7 The Multipol method
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10
7.1 A simple operational tool
197
1
7.2 Case-study: launching a new product
198
9
8. INTEGRATING SCENARIOS AND STRATEGY
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22
1 Back to square one in strategic management
208
9
1.1 Two age-old concepts
208
1
1.2 Two exemplary models: the Church and the armed forces
209
2
1.3 Two pioneers: Henri Fayol and Frederick Winslow Taylor
211
2
1.4 A prophet in the desert of management: Mary Parker Follett
213
4
2 The emergence and development of strategic management from 1920 to the present
217
3
3 The inevitable encounter
220
1
3.1 The rise of prospective thinking
220
1
3.2 Questioning planning
221
3
4 An integrated approach: strategic prospective
224
5
9. PEOPLE AND ORGANIZATIONS MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
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18
1 Quality of leaders and winning teams
229
3
2 'Yes' to the plan and shared vision, 'no' to its pitfalls
232
2
3 Metamorphosis of structures and behaviour
234
13
3.1 Adaptable or anticipatory structures?
235
2
3.2 Simple, lean structures
237
1
3.3 Strategic centralization and operational decentralization
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3.4 Strategic consequences of environmental changes
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2
3.5 From an end to habits to a mental revolution
241
6
10. THE DAWN OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
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28
1 Multiple uncertainties linked to the absence of a regulator
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3
2 A quasi-certainty: Europtimism
251
3
2.1 From Europessimism to Europtimism
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1
2.2 Europe 1993: the dream and the reality
252
2
3 Eleven likely trends
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12
3.1 Demographic imbalances and South-North and East-North migratory flows
254
1
3.2 Threats to the physical environment and the negative legacy of past growth
255
3
3.3 A lawless and turbulent international environment
258
1
3.4 Slow, irregular, unequal and interdependent growth
259
1
3.5 New energy price rises: beneficial if they are gradual
259
1
3.6 The flood of new technologies: a new competitive order
260
1
3.7 Deregulation associated with new international and regional regulation
260
1
3.8 Economic competition on a global scale with states playing a key role
261
1
3.9 Decline in industrial jobs and rise of service industries
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2
3.10 Crisis of the Welfare State
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1
3.11 New forms of exclusion
265
1
4 Three major uncertainties
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3
4.1 Will the rate of diffusion of new technologies be as rapid as forecast?
266
1
4.2 Metamorphosis of work and employment
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1
4.3 Evolution of lifestyles and social organization in developed countries
268
1
5 The lie of the land in the year 2000, in brief
269
1
5.1 Probable trends
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3
5.2 Major uncertainties
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5.3 Possible discontinuities (examples)
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1
REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
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