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Tables of Contents for Challenges of a Changing Earth
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Part I Opening
1
18
Opening Address
3
4
Challenges of a Changing Earth
7
12
References
17
2
Part II Achievements and Challenges
19
1
Part IIa Food, Land, Water, and Oceans
20
24
Toward Integrated Land-Change Science: Advances in 1.5 Decades of Sustained International Research on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change
21
6
Trends
21
2
Causes
23
1
Model-Methods
24
1
Summary and Observations
25
2
References
25
2
Climate Variability and Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics: Implications for Sustainability
27
4
Introduction
27
1
Climate Effects on Marine Ecosystems
28
1
Implications for Sustainability
29
2
References
29
2
Food in the 21st Century: Global Climate of Disparities
31
8
Food in the 21st Century: Global Climate of Disparities
31
1
The Critical Role of Knowledge
31
1
Environment and Sustainable Development
32
1
Global Environmental Change
32
1
Global Agro-Ecological Assessment
33
1
Global AEZ Findings
34
1
Global Warming and Climate Change
34
1
Impact of Climate Change on Worldwide Cereal Production
35
2
Food Security and Climate Change
37
1
Climate Change Impact: Fairness and Equity?
38
1
Concluding Remark
38
1
References
38
1
Equity Dimensions of Dam-Based Water Resources Development: Winners and Losers
39
5
Introduction
39
1
Why is Equity Relevant in River Basin Development Contexts? An Illustration from the Senegal River
39
1
Role of Dams in Water Resources Allocation
40
1
Addressing Equity Dimensions of Dam-Based Water Resources Development
41
1
The Concept of Equity
41
1
Ideas for Improving the Equity Performance of Dam Projects
41
1
Conclusions
42
2
References
43
1
Part IIb Out of Breath: Air Quality in the 21st Century
44
12
Atmospheric Chemistry in the ``Anthropocene''
45
4
Fires, Haze and Acid Rain: The Social and Political Framework of Air Pollution in ASEAN and Asia
49
7
Introduction: Air Pollution and Asia in Context
49
1
Part 1: The Problem in Perspective
49
2
The Haze: Summary of a Recurring Disaster
49
1
Northeast Asian Acid Rain: The Smog of Growth
50
1
Part 2: International Principles and Practice
51
1
International Law and Practice in Other Regions
51
1
The ASEAN Way and Environmental Cooperation
51
1
Cooperation in Northeast Asia
52
1
Part 3: Assessing and Improving Regional Cooperation on the Environment
52
2
Assessment and Prospects for Improvement
52
1
How to Improve ASEAN?
53
1
Northeast Asian Cooperation
53
1
Conclusion: Strengthening the Social and Political Frameworks
54
2
General References
55
1
Specific References
55
1
Part IIc Managing Planetary Metabolism? The Global Carbon Cycle
56
16
Carbon and the Science-Policy Nexus: The Kyoto Challenge
57
8
The Global Carbon Cycle
58
1
Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle
58
1
The Terrestrial Sink
59
1
Location of the Terrestrial Sink
59
1
Variability of the Terrestrial Sink
60
1
Origin of the Terrestrial Sink
60
1
The Future of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle
60
5
References
64
1
Industry Response to the CO2 Challenge
65
7
Introduction
65
1
The Energy Context
65
1
The Industry Response
66
3
Reducing GHG Emissions
66
1
Future Innovations
67
1
Renewable Energy
68
1
Transport Fuels
69
1
Relations between Business and the Scientific Community
69
2
Summary of the Key Points
71
1
Part IId Summary: Global Change and the Challenge for the Future
72
3
Global Change and the Challenge for the Future
73
2
Part III Advances in Understanding
75
1
Part IIIa Global Biogeochemistry: Understanding the Metabolic System of the Planet
76
16
Ocean Biogeochemistry: A Sea of Change
77
4
Introduction
77
1
The Oceanic Carbon Cycle
77
1
Ocean Time-Series Programmes
78
2
Summary
80
1
References
80
1
The Past, Present and Future of Carbon on Land
81
6
What Controls the Behaviour of Biospheric Carbon?
81
1
The Carbon Cycle is Constrained by Other Elemental Cycles
82
1
The Nitrogen-Carbon Link
82
1
Do Land Ecosystems Retain Nitrogen Deposited From the Air?
83
1
The Phosphorus-Nitrogen Link
83
1
The Carbon Cycle During the Past 420 Thousand Years
83
4
References
85
2
Can New Institutions Solve Atmospheric Problems? Confronting Acid Rain, Ozone Depletion and Climate Change
87
5
Does the Regime Have Appropriate Behavioural Mechanisms?
88
1
Has the Regime Given Rise to a Robust Social Practice?
89
1
Does the Regime Have a Sensitive Steering System?
90
1
Implications for the Climate Regime
91
1
References
91
1
Part IIIb Land-Ocean Interactions: Regional-Global Linkages
92
14
Emissions from the Oceans to the Atmosphere, Deposition from the Atmosphere to the Oceans and the Interactions Between Them
93
4
Atmospheric Inputs to the Oceans
93
1
Nitrogen
93
1
Iron
94
1
Emissions from the Ocean to the Atmosphere
94
1
Interacting Cycles -- the Challenge for the Future
95
2
References
96
1
Bibliography
96
1
The Impact of Dams on Fisheries: Case of the Three Gorges Dam
97
4
The Effect of Dams on Deltas and Estuaries
97
1
The Case of the Three Gorges Dam
98
1
Threat to Other Shelves
98
3
References
99
2
Global Change in the Coastal Zone: The Case of Southeast Asia
101
5
Where is the Coastal Zone and Why Southeast Asia?
101
1
Pressures on the Coastal Zone: Population and a Resource-Dependent Economy
101
5
References
104
2
Part IIIc The Climate System: Prediction, Change and Variability
106
16
Climate Change Fore and Aft: Where on Earth Are We Going?
107
2
Climate Change -- Past, Present and Future: A Personal Perspective
109
4
Lessons from the Past
110
1
Global Temperature Change
110
1
The Future in Perspective of the Past
111
2
References
112
1
The Changing Cryosphere: Impacts of Global Warming in the High Latitudes
113
4
What Is the Cryosphere and How Does It Contribute to Global Climate Change?
113
1
What Is the Empirical Evidence of Climate Change in the High Latitudes?
113
1
Impacts of Global Warming in the High Latitudes
114
3
The Coupled Climate System: Variability and Predictability
117
5
Introduction
117
1
Seasonal to Interannual Climate Variability
117
1
Decadal Climate Variability
118
2
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change
120
2
Part IIId Hot Spots of Land-Use Change and the Climate System: A Regional or Global Concern
122
21
Hot Spots of Land-Use Change and the Climate System: A Regional or Global Concern?
123
2
References
124
1
Africa: Greening of the Sahara
125
4
Africa: A Hot Spot of Nonlinear Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction
125
1
The African Wet Period
126
1
Abrupt Changes in North Africa
126
1
Will North Africa Become Green Again in the Near Future?
127
1
Outlook
128
1
Acknowledgements
128
1
References
128
1
The Role of Large-Scale Vegetation and Land Use in the Water Cycle and Climate in Monsoon Asia
129
4
The Asian Monsoon As a Huge Water Cycling System
129
1
Atmospheric Water Cycle over Monsoon Asia and the Eurasian Continent
129
1
Is Monsoon Rainfall Decreasing? The Impact of Deforestation on the Water Cycle in Thailand
129
1
Do Water-Fed Rice Paddy Fields Increase Rainfall in Monsoon Asia?
130
1
A Hydro-Climate Memory Effect of the Taiga-Permafrost System in Siberia
131
2
References
132
1
Can Human-Induced Land-Cover Change Modify the Monsoon System?
133
4
History of Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes over East Asia
133
1
Design of the Numerical Experiments
133
2
Changes of Surface Dynamic Parameters under Two Types of Vegetation Cover
135
1
Changes of East Asian Monsoon by Human-Induced Land-Cover Changes
135
1
Conclusions
136
1
References
136
1
The Amazon Basin and Land-Cover Change: A Future in the Balance?
137
6
Land-Use Change
137
1
Impacts on the Carbon Cycle
138
1
Impacts on the Atmosphere
139
1
Impacts on Water Chemistry
140
1
The Future
140
3
Acknowledgements
140
1
References
140
3
Part IV Looking to the Future
143
1
Part IVa Simulating and Observing the Earth System
144
16
Virtual Realities of the Past, Present and Future
145
6
What Are General Circulation Models (GCMs)?
145
1
How Do We Use Climate Models?
145
1
How Well Do Models Simulate Present Climate?
146
1
How Well Do Models Predict Past Climate Change?
146
1
What Are the Predictions for the Future?
147
1
What Developments Are Likely in the Future?
148
1
How Can We Deal with Uncertainty in Predictions?
148
1
Concluding Remarks
149
2
References
149
2
Coping with Earth System Complexity and Irregularity
151
6
The Challenge
151
1
Great Cognitive Barriers
151
1
Breaches and Bypasses to Understanding
152
4
Adaptive Planetary Stewardship
156
1
References
156
1
Simulating and Observing the Earth System: Summary
157
3
Earth System
157
1
Simulators
158
1
Observations
158
1
The Way Forward
158
2
Part IVb Does the Earth System Need Biodiversity?
160
14
Marine Biodiversity: Why We Need It in Earth System Science
161
4
Reference
163
2
Does Biodiversity Matter to Terrestrial Ecosystem Processes and Services?
165
4
Is Biodiversity Important to the Functioning of the Earth System?
165
1
What is Biodiversity?
165
1
The Most Abundant Plants Are Important for Ecosystem Functioning
165
1
The Number of Functionally Similar Species Is Important in Facing Environmental Change
166
1
Implications for Conservation and Sustainable Management
166
3
Biodiversity Loss and the Maintenance of Our Life-Support System
169
5
How Does Biodiversity Affect Ecosystem Functioning at Small Scales?
169
2
Scaling Up in Time: Biodiversity As Insurance Against Environmental Changes
171
1
Scaling Up in Space: Biodiversity Effects at Landscape and Regional Scales
172
1
Conclusions
172
2
References
172
2
Part IVc Can Technology Spare the Planet?
174
18
Maglevs and the Vision of St. Hubert - Or the Great Restoration of Nature: Why and How
175
8
Introduction
175
1
The Vision of St. Hubert
175
1
Our Triune Brain
175
2
Sparing Sea Life
177
1
Sparing Farmland
177
2
Sparing Forests
179
1
Sparing Pavement
180
1
Cardinal Resolutions
181
2
References
182
1
Industrial Transformation: Exploring System Change in Production and Consumption
183
6
Human Choice on Issues Involving a Time Scale of Decades to Centuries
183
1
Transformation: Why, How Does It Work and What Are the Options
184
1
From Green Products to System Transformation
185
1
Five Major Foci for Transformation Research
186
1
International Cooperation
186
1
In Summary
187
2
References
188
1
Will Technology Spare the Planet?
189
3
References
191
1
Part IVd Towards Global Sustainability
192
10
Challenges and Road Blocks for Local and Global Sustainability
193
4
Advances
193
1
International Instruments: Urgency of Goals and Synergies
193
1
The Biodiversity Convention
193
1
The Climate Change Convention
194
1
Synergies
195
1
New Inputs
195
2
Research Systems for a Transition Toward Sustainability
197
4
Acknowledgements
199
1
References
199
2
Summary: Towards Global Sustainability
201
1
Part IVe Closing Session
202
7
Closing Address
203
4
Science and Policy
203
2
Prospects for the Climate Change Negotiations
205
2
The Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change
207
2
Index
209