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Tables of Contents for Fooled by Randomness
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Preface and Acknowledgments
xiii
Chapter Summaries
xvii
Prologue
1
1
Mosques in the Clouds
1
6
PART I: Solons Warning - Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction
7
104
If You're So Rich Why Aren't You So Smart?
11
15
Nero Tulip
11
6
Hit by Lightining
11
1
Temporary Sanity
12
2
Modus Operandi
14
2
No Work Ethics
16
1
There Are Always Secrets
17
1
John the High-Yield Trader
17
4
An Overpaid Hick
19
2
The Red-Hot Summer
21
3
Serotonin and Randomness
22
2
Your Dentist Is Rich, Very Rich
24
2
A Bizarre Accounting Method
26
14
Alternative History
26
3
Russian Roulette
27
1
An Even More Vicious Roulette
28
1
Smooth Peer Relations
29
5
Salvation Via Aeroflot
30
2
Solon Visits Regine's Night Club
32
2
George Will Is No Solon: On Counterintuitive Truths
34
6
Humiliated in Debates
37
1
Risk Managers
38
2
A Mathematical Meditation on History
40
20
Europlayboy Mathematics
40
1
The Tools
41
2
Monte Carlo Mathematics
43
2
Fun in My Attic
45
6
Making History
45
1
Zorglubs Crowding the Attic
46
1
Denigration of History
47
1
The Stove Is Hot
48
2
My Solon
50
1
Distilled Thinking on Your PalmPilot
51
5
Breaking News
51
2
Shiller Redux
53
2
Gerontocracy
55
1
Philostratus in Monte Carlo: On the Difference Between Noise and Information
56
4
Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific Intellectual
60
8
Randomness and the Verb
60
4
Reverse Turing Test
62
2
The Father of All Pseudothinkers
64
1
Monte Carlo Poetry
64
4
Survival of the Least Fit - Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness?
68
16
Carlos the Emerging Markets Wizard
68
6
The Good Years
71
1
Averaging Down
72
1
Lines in the Sand
72
2
John the High-Yield Trader
74
4
The Quant Who Knew Computers and Equations
75
3
The Traits They Shared
78
1
A Review of Market Fools of Randomness Constants
78
3
Naive Evolutionary Theories
81
3
Can Evolution be Fooled by Randomness?
82
2
Skewness and Asymmetry
84
15
The Median Is Not the Message
84
2
Bull and Bear Zoology
86
7
An Arrogant 29-Year-Old Son
88
1
Rare Events
89
1
Symmetry and Science
90
3
The Rare Event Fallacy
93
6
The Mother of All Deceptions
93
3
Why Don't Statisticians Detect Rare Events?
96
1
A Mischievous Child Replaces the Black Balls
97
2
The Problem of Induction
99
12
From Bacon to Hume
99
4
Cygnus Atratus
100
1
Niederhoffer, Victorian Gentleman
100
3
Sir Karl's Promoting Agent
103
7
Location, Location
105
1
Popper's Answer
106
2
Open Society
108
1
Nobody Is Perfect
108
1
Pascal's Wager
109
1
Thank You Solon
110
1
PART II: Monkeys on Typewriters - Survivorship and Other Biases
111
58
It Depends On the Number of Monkeys
114
1
Vicious Real Life
115
1
This Section
115
2
Too Many Millionaires Next Door
117
8
How To Stop the Sting of Failure
117
3
Somewhat Happy
117
1
Too Much Work
118
1
You're a Failure
119
1
Double Survivorship Biases
120
3
More Experts
120
2
Visibility Winners
122
1
It's a Bull Market
122
1
A Guru's Opinion
123
2
It Is Easier To Buy and Sell Than Fry an Egg
125
17
Fooled by Numbers
127
4
Placebo Investors
127
1
Nobody Has To Be Competent
128
1
Ergodicity
129
2
Life Is Coincidental
131
10
The Mysterious Letter
131
1
An Interrupted Tennis Game
132
1
The Birthday Paradox
132
1
It's a Small World!
132
1
Data Mining, Statistics, and Charlatanism
133
1
The Best Book I Have Ever Read!
134
1
The Backtester
134
2
A More Unsettling Extension
136
1
The Earnings Season: Fooled by the Results
136
1
Cancer Cures
137
2
Professor Pearson Goes to Monte Carlo (Literally): Randomness Does Not Look Random!
139
1
The Dog That Did Not Bark: On Biases in Scientific Knowledge
140
1
I Have No Conclusion
141
1
Loser Takes All - On the Nonlinearities of Life
142
7
The Sandpile Effect
142
4
Enter Randomness
144
1
Learning to Type
144
2
Mathematics Inside and Outside the Real World
146
2
Buridan's Donkey or the Good Side of Randomness
147
1
When It Rains, It Pours
148
1
Randomness and Our Brain: We Are Probability Blind
149
20
Paris or the Bahamas?
149
1
Some Architectural Considerations
150
2
From Psychology to Neurobiology
152
10
Our Natural Habitat
153
1
Kafka in a Courtroom
154
2
An Absurd World
156
1
Kahneman and Tversky
157
1
Neurobiology
158
1
Examples of Biases in Understanding Probability
159
1
We Are Option Blind
160
2
Probabilities and the Media (More Journalists)
162
7
CNBC at Lunch Time
163
1
You Should Be Dead by Now
163
1
The Bloomberg Explanations
164
2
Filtering Methods
166
2
We Do Not Understand Confidence Levels
168
1
An Admission
168
1
Part III: Wax in My Ears - Living with Randomitis
169
27
I Am Not So Intelligent
172
1
The Odyssean Mute Command
173
2
Gamblers' Ticks and Pigeons in a Box
175
7
Taxi-Cab English and Causality
175
3
The Skinner Pigeon Experiment
178
1
Philostratus Redux
179
3
Carneades Comes to Rome: On Probability and Skepticism
182
9
Carneades Comes to Rome
183
2
Probability the Child of Skepticism
184
1
Monsieur de Norpois's Opinions
185
3
Path Dependence of Beliefs
187
1
Computing Instead of Thinking
188
2
From Funeral to Funeral
190
1
Bacchus Abandons Antony
191
5
Notes on Jackie O.'s Funeral
192
2
Randomness and Personal Elegance
194
2
Epilogue: Solon Told You So
196
1
Beware the London Traffic Jams
196
1
Notes
197
1
Index
198
6
About Texere
204