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Tables of Contents for The Clinical Prediction of Violent Behavior
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Foreword
iii
2
Preface to the New Edition
v
2
Preface
vii
 
Chapter 1. Introduction to Controversy
1
20
Prediction in Life and in Law
1
2
Definitions of Dangerous and Violent Behavior
3
3
Criticism of Prediction in Law
6
3
The Empirical Attack: Accurate Prediction Is Impossible
6
1
The Political Attack: Prediction Violates Civil Liberties
7
1
The Professional Attack: Prediction Destroys the Helping Role of the Mental Health Disciplines
8
1
The Moral and Political Issues Raised by Prediction
9
5
The Criterion: Why Some Forms of Violence and Not Others?
10
1
The Predictors: What Shall Be Included?
10
2
The Relationship: How Accurate Is Accurate Enough?
12
2
The Consquences: Prediction for What Purpose?
12
2
A Statement of Personal Values
14
5
Summary
19
2
Chapter 2. The Clinical Prediction Process in Theory and in Practice
21
20
Core Concepts in Prediction
21
4
Predictor and Criterion Variables
21
1
Outcome of Positive and Negative Predictions
22
1
Decision Rules
23
1
Base Rates
24
1
The Clinical Prediction Process in Theory
25
3
Personality Factors
25
1
Motivation
26
1
Inhibition
26
1
Habit
26
1
Situational Factors
26
1
Interactions
27
1
The Clinical Prediction Process in Practice
28
3
Common Clinical Errors in Prediction
31
7
Lack of Specificity in Defining the Criterion
32
1
Ignoring Statistical Bases Rates
33
3
Relying upon Illusory Correlations
36
1
Failing To Incorporate Environmental Information
37
1
Summary
38
3
Chapter 3. Research on Clinical Prediction
41
22
Childhood Prediction of Adult Violence
41
3
Outcome Studies of Clinical Prediction
44
6
Psychological Tests
50
1
Criticisms of the Clinical Research
50
6
The Studies Tested Something Other Than Prediction
50
1
The Predictions That Were Tested Were Seriously Out of Date
51
1
Much Violence May Have Occurred But Not Been Detected
52
4
Possible Limits on the Generalizability of the Research: The Prediction of Imminent Violence in Emergency Contexts
56
4
Summary
60
3
Chapter 4. Statistical Approaches to Improving Clinical Prediction
63
28
Clinical and Actuarial Prediction
63
2
The Nature of the Distinction
63
1
Statistical Data Combined Statistically
64
1
Statistical Data Combined Clinically
64
1
Clinical Data Combined Statistically
65
1
Clinical Data Combined Clinically
65
1
On Predicting an Individual's Behavior From Class Membership
65
2
Actuarial Studies of the Prediction of Violence
67
4
Major Actuarial Correlates of Violent Behavior
71
6
Past Crime, Particularly Violent Crime
71
1
Age
72
1
Sex
73
1
Race
74
1
Socioeconomic Status and Employment Stability
75
1
Opiate or Alcohol Abuse
76
1
Mental Illness and Violent Behavior
77
5
Mental Illness Among Criminals
78
1
Violent Behavior Among Former Mental Patients
79
3
The Dominance of Clinical Prediction in the Law
82
3
Clinical Prediction and the Rare Event
83
1
Insufficient Time for Actuarial Analysis
84
1
The Unavailability of Actuarial Data
84
1
The Clinical Use of Stastistical Data
85
4
Making Base Rates of Violence a Prime Consideration
87
1
Obtaining Information on Valid Predictive Relationships
88
1
Not Overreacting to Positive Correlations
89
1
Summary
89
2
Chapter 5. Environmental Approches to Improving Clinical Prediction
91
10
Assessing Environmental Factors
91
2
Major Situational Correlates of Violent Behavior
93
4
Family Environment
94
1
Peer Environment
94
1
Job Environment
95
1
Availability of Victims
96
1
Availability of Weapons
97
1
Availability of Alcohol
97
1
Assessing Interactions Between Persons and Their Environments
97
3
Summary
100
1
Chapter 6. The Clinical Examination
101
13
Questions for the Clinician
102
12
Is It a Prediction of Violent Behaviour That is Being Requested?
102
1
Am I Professionally Competent To Offer an Estimate of the Probability of Future Violence?
103
1
Are any Issues of Personal or Professional Ethics Involved In This Case?
103
3
Given My Answers to the Above Questions, Is This Case an Appropriate One in Which To Offer a Prediction?
106
1
What Events Precipitated Raising the Question of the Person's Potential for Violence, and in What Context Did These Events Take Place?
106
1
What Are the Person's Relevant Demographic Characteristics?
107
1
What Is the Person's History of Violent Behavior?
107
1
What Is the Base Rate of Violent Behavior Among Individuals of This Person's Background?
108
1
What Are the Sources of Stress in the Person's Current Environment?
108
1
What Cognitive and Affective Factors Indicate That the Person May Be Predisposed To Cope With Stress in a Violent Manner?
109
1
What Congnitive and Affective Factors Indicate That the Person May Be Predisposed To Cope With Stress in a Nonviolent Manner?
109
4
How Similar Are the Contexts in Which the Person Has Used Violent Coping Mechanisms in the Past to the Contexts in Which the Person Likely Will Function in the Future?
113
1
In Particular, Who Are the Likely Victims of the Person's Violent Behavior, and How Available Are They?
113
1
What Means Does the Person Possess To Commit Violence?
114
1
Summary
114
2
A Case Study
116
4
A Clinical Report
120
2
Conclusion
122
2
References
124