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Tables of Contents for Shaping the Next One Hundred Years
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Preface
iii
Figures
vii
Tables
ix
Summary
xi
Acknowledgments
xix
Abbreviations
xxi
Chapter One THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS
1
10
Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possible
3
4
The Challenge of Global Sustainable Development
7
1
Surprise: The Constant Element
8
1
Organization of This Report
8
3
Chapter Two A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE
11
28
Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Future
12
4
Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresight
16
4
Simulation Modeling
20
5
Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty
25
4
Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futures
29
7
Assessing the State of the Art
36
3
Chapter Three ROBUST DECISIONMAKING
39
30
Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty
40
5
Consider Ensembles of Scenarios
45
7
Seek Robust Strategies
52
5
Employ Adaptive Strategies
57
5
Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactively
62
4
Concluding Thoughts
66
3
Chapter Four A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION
69
18
The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainability
69
1
The "XLRM" Framework
70
17
Chapter Five IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING
87
38
Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Development
87
4
Landscapes of Plausible Futures
91
5
No Fixed Strategy Is Robust
96
7
Exploring Near-Term Milestones
103
7
Identifying a Robust Strategy
110
7
Characterizing Irreducible Risks
117
4
Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Development
121
4
Chapter Six POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS
125
20
Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generators
126
5
Improved Navigation
131
4
A Diversity of Measures and Values
135
2
Engaging the Community of Stakeholders
137
4
Improving Long-Term Decisionmaking
141
4
Chapter Seven CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES
145
4
Appendix
A. DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIO GENERATOR
149
16
B. ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES
165
14
Bibliography
179