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Tables of Contents for Taking Charge
The Transition 2001 Panel
iv
U.S. Grand Strategy: Setting a New Direction
Zalmay Khalilzad3
18
Integrate Major Powers and Key Regional States into the International System
6
2
Preventing Domination of Critical Regions
8
3
Contain and Mitigate Any Backlash Against Globalization
11
1
Limit, Reduce, and Secure WMD and Missiles, and Protect Against Terrorism
12
2
Transform the U.S. Military and Strengthen Military Cooperation with Allies
14
2
Work Proactively to Improve the International Security Environment
16
5
U.S. Policy Toward European Defense
James Thomson21
12
The European Challenge
26
4
NATO Enlargement: Decisions for the New President
Robert E. Hunter33
14
The Package of Efforts
35
2
Deciding on the Invitees
37
3
The Range of Alternatives
40
4
U.S. Alliance Relations in the Global Era
David C. Gompert47
14
Strong Friendships, Shaky Alliances
47
2
Strategically Pointless, or Just Rudderless?
49
1
The Alternatives---First Pass
50
2
Farewell to Free-Riding?
52
2
Does the United States Want Followers or Partners?
54
2
The Alternatives---Second Pass
56
1
Section III: Major Powers and Key Regions
Prospects and Possibilities for U.S.-Russian Relations
Jeremy R. Azrael61
10
U.S. Strategy Toward China
Zalmay Khalilzad71
8
Where Is China Heading?
71
3
U.S. Policy Alternatives
74
3
Engagement74
2
Containment76
1
Recommended Strategy: `Congagement'
77
2
Policy Toward Greece and Turkey
Ian O. Lesser79
10
New Challenges and Opportunities
79
4
What Are U.S. Interests? What Is at Stake?
83
1
The Balkans: Challenges and Priorities for the Next Administration
F. Stephen Larrabee89
10
U.S. Interests in the Balkans
89
1
Promoting Democratization and Reform in Serbia92
1
The Kosovo Dilemma93
2
Macedonia: Fostering Ethnic Harmony
95
1
Stabilizing the Periphery
96
1
South Asia: U.S. Policy Choices
Ashley J. Tellis99
12
Issue One: India and Pakistan
99
8
Issue Two: Civil War in Afghanistan
107
1
Issue Three: Civil War in Sri Lanka
108
3
Preserving Stability and Democracy in Indonesia
Angel Rabasa111
10
Presidential Policy Options Toward Iran
Jerrold D. Green121
8
U.S. Policy Toward Iraq
Daniel Byman129
8
The Iraqi Threat and the U.S. Response
129
1
Challenges in Latin America Confronting the Next Administration
Angel Rabasa137
16
U.S. Strategic Interests in Latin America
137
1
Threats to Democracy and Stability
138
2
Faltering Hemispheric Integration138
1
The Disruptive Impact of Globalization139
1
Regression to Authoritarian Patterns139
1
The Activities of Transnational Criminal Cartels140
1
Formulating a Strategic U.S. Approach
140
6
The U.S.-Mexico Relationship in the post-PRI Era140
1
Preserving Democracy and Stability in the Andean Region141
1
Colombia: A Failing State?142
1
Regionalization of Colombia's Conflict143
1
Venezuela: Democratic Revolution or Populist Authoritarianism?144
1
Central America: Threats to Peace and Democracy145
1
Cuba: A Need for a Fresh Look146
1
A Latin American Policy Agenda for the Next Administration
146
7
U.S. Foreign Policy and Sub-Saharan Africa
Bob Bates and
Diann Painter Mobil Corporation153
6
Section IV: International Economic Issues
Economic Instruments to Support National Security: What Has the United States Learned? What Does It Need?
C. Richard Neu159
10
Responding to Threats and Challenges
160
2
Preparing Now for Future Threats and Challenges
162
2
Shaping the International Environment to Promote Stability and Security
164
3
Strengthening the International Financial System
C. Richard Neu169
10
Reforming National Policies
170
2
More Effective International Financial Arrangements
172
1
Refocus the IMF on Its Primary Mission
173
2
Create Incentives for Sound National Policies
175
1
Force Private Creditors to Share the Pain
175
2
Refocus the Development Banks
177
2
Trade Policy: A Turning Point
Ted Van Dyk179
8
A Guide for the Next International Energy Crisis
James T. Bartis187
14
Petroleum Fundamentals
188
2
Prospects for an International Energy Crisis
190
1
Responding to an International Energy Crisis
191
10
Supply Options192
3
Demand Options195
1
Economic Stability196
5
Section V: Proliferation, Terrorism, Humanitarian Interventions
Humanitarian Intervention
Richard N. Haass201
6
Proliferation
Lynn E. Davis207
12
Current Nonproliferation Strategy
208
4
An Overall Nonproliferation Approach
212
1
Nonproliferation Initiatives
212
5
Approach to Other Suppliers213
1
Priority Given to the Nuclear Threat213
1
Redesign Export Controls214
1
Economic Sanctions Legislation215
1
Terrorists with Chemical and Biological Weapons216
1
Nuclear Strategy
Glenn Buchan219
14
Nuclear Issues: What Direction in the Future?
220
3
Future Options for U.S. Nuclear Strategy
223
1
Why Nuclear Weapons Are Attractive223
1
...And Why They Are Not223
1
The Historical Legacy
224
1
Future Strategic Options
225
8
A Word About Abolition226
1
Deterrence by Threat of Retaliation227
1
Nuclear War Fighting228
3
A Contemporary U.S. Nuclear Strategy231
2
Presidential Transition Team Issues: Terrorism
Bruce Hoffman233
14
Section VI: Military and Intelligence Transformation
National Security Resources
Gordon Adams247
16
International Affairs Resources Issues
250
4
The Diplomatic `Platform'251
1
New Threats and Issues: Coping with Globalization251
1
Health and Infectious Diseases252
1
Environmental Protection252
1
Global Information Technology Initiative252
1
Ensuring International Financial Stability252
1
Leveraging the Private Sector253
1
Peacekeeping Readiness253
1
Leveraging Diplomacy253
1
Defense Resource Issues
254
9
Transforming the Force Structure256
1
Modernizing the Inventory256
2
Maintaining Readiness258
1
Ensuring Quality of Life259
1
Infrastructure and Management260
3
Military Science and Technology
Loren B. Thompson263
12
The Scale of Military Science and Technology Efforts
263
1
The Scope of Military S&T Research
264
2
A Framework for S&T Investments
266
1
Transforming Military Forces
Paul K. Davis275
20
Why Transformation Is Needed276
5
Relationship to the Revolution in Military Affairs281
1
Recent Moves to Transform the Force
281
3
History281
1
Creation of the U.S. Joint Forces Command282
1
The Crucial Role of the Services283
1
A Next-Phase Strategy for Transformation
284
6
Keys to Transformation Strategy284
1
The Need for a Two-Track Approach285
5
Next Steps for the United States
290
2
Selected RAND References
292
3
Getting the Quadrennial Defense Review Right
David Ochmanek295
8
U.S. National Security Strategy
297
1
Missions of the Armed Forces
298
1
The Challenge of Power Projection
299
1
Why `Two' Is the Right Number
300
1
Nuclear Weapon Initiatives for the Next Administration
David McGarvey303
6
The U.S. and Russian Need for Massive Retaliation
305
1
Deterrence Through Punishment and Deterrence Through Denial
307
1
Formulating Strategies for International Collaboration in Developing and Producing Defense Systems
John Birkler Mark Lorell and
Michael Rich309
10
New Era---New Promise?
312
2
Budget312
1
Technology312
1
Politics313
1
Program Selection: The Importance of Mutuality315
1
The Requirements Process: The Locus of Decision Making316
1
Program Structure316
1
Competition317
1
Intelligence Issues for the New Administration
Abram Shulsky319
14
Rationalization of the Use of Information
321
5
Counterintelligence and Counterdeception
326
2
Reorientation of Technical Intelligence
328
1
Creation of a `Tracking' System
329
1
Section VII: National Security Policy Processes
Fixing Three National Security Deficits: Purpose, Structure, and People
Harlan Ullmann333
12
The Infrastructure of American Diplomacy
William C. Harrop345
9
The Components of National Security
346
1
America's New International Agenda
347
1
The Hollowing Out of U.S. Diplomatic Readiness
348
1
Modernization and Reform
349
5
Security of U.S. Embassies and Consulates351
1
Information Technology351
1
`Right Sizing' of Embassies351
1
Managing Overseas Buildings352
1
Relations with Congress352
1
Public Diplomacy352
1
State Department Workforce Planning353
1
Commercial Diplomacy353
1
Decentralization---and Its Implications353
1
Interagency Coordination353
1
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