Contents
Introduction: Present at the Creation
Part I: INSIDE THE NEW COLD WAR Strategy and Management
Chapter 1. A New and Unnecessary Cold War Takes Shape
The End of History and the Burgers of Beijing The Great Leap Backward: From China Boom to China Threat The Ironies of History Toward Resolving the Cold War
Chapter 2. The Eagle and the Dragon (I): From Clipper Ships to Tiananmen Square
West Meets East Missionaries and Demonizers The Cultural Revolution in China -- and America Playing the China Card Trading with the Enemy Deng Xiaoping in a Stetson 1989: A Tale of Two Squares "To Get Rich Is Glorious!" The Lure of the China Market
Chapter 3. The Eagle and the Dragon (II): To the Brink
Is It Economics, Stupid? Or Stupid Economics? The Problem with the 800-Pound Gorilla "Sino-American Relations Are in Free Fall" Brinksmanship in the Straits of Taiwan The China That Says No The Left and the Right Coffee or Tea? Rethinking and Rethinking Again Talk, Talk, Fight, Fight The Context Is Crucial, and That Context Is Progress
Chapter 4. Competing and Cooperating with the World's New Economic Superpower
1. China Ascendant: From Main Street to Wall Street, from the Boardroom to the Beltway 2. Are the Chinese Stealing American Jobs? 3. The Great Global Game of Go 4. Piracy of Digital Bits 5. It's Not Just China: Here Comes the New G-7 6. Eating Big Macs Doesn't Make It McChina 7. Toward the "Confucian Social Market" 8. "China Could Be Like Japan on Steroids" 9. A Different Kind of "World's Largest Economy"
Chapter 5. Threat or Challenge?
Of Divas, Tenors, and Peking Opera The "China Threat" Reconsidered
China as Military Threat to the United States China Has Declared the United States Its Enemy China as an Expansionist Power in Asia China Behaves Aggressively and Provocatively Toward Taiwan China Is a Rogue Nation That Refuses to Play by International Rules China Is a Fascist Dictatorship and the World's Leading Human Rights Violator
Alternatives, Anyone? The Myth of the Allies
PART II: BENCHMARKING CHINA
The Shanghai Allusion
Chapter 6. Of Bulls, Bears, and Being Moderately Bullish
The Bulls Have Their Run The Bears Have Reasons to Growl Our Own View
Chapter 7. China's Burdens
The Burden of Scale The Burden of Nature and Geography The Burden of History and Culture
Chapter 8. Impossible Problems -- and Possible Solutions
Winners and Losers "The Center Has Its Measures but the Provinces Have Their Countermeasures" Socialist Dreams, Capitalist Nightmares Corruption: Back Door to Modern Capitalism?
Chapter 9. The Impulse Toward Unity: The Geopolitical Meaning of the "Middle Kingdom"
Maintaining Territorial Integrity
Chapter 10. "Crossing the River by Feeling the Stones"
The Yangzi Is Not the Mississippi Looking in the Mirror An Explosion Still Ahead?
PART III: JUMPING INTO THE SEA
A Thousand Rivers
Chapter 11. Zhang Wei: Finding Answers to the Question of Ownership
Chapter 12. Chen Ping: The Adventurer
Chapter 13. Feng Lun: Master Builder
The Lessons of Entrepreneurship
PART IV: GEOMANCING THE DRAGON
Wind and Water
Chapter 14. The Next Five Years: The Dragon at Home
Rites of Passage: The Post-Deng Succession Struggle, 1998-2002 After Jiang, What? Generational Politics, Chinese Style Mao Is Back!?!? "May You Live in Interesting Times"
Chapter 15. The Next Five Years: The Dragon Peers Out
Hong Kong: Life After 1997 Taiwan: A Contrarian View Tibet: The Next Taiwan Japan Plays Its China Card Food for Thought Provocation: When China's Military Is Modernized
Chapter 16. Scenarios for the Twenty-first Century
The Overall Political-Economic Framework The Great Wall in Ruins: The Search for New Values Postcommunist Politics The New Chinese Corporation and the Future of the State-Owned Enterprises Big Versus Fast "Connectivity": A Vision of China's Future Shape The Three Gorges Dam: A Study in Environmental Politics
Chapter 17. Fast-Forward to the Future: The Superdragon in 2024
Looking Back from 2024
PART V: BEYOND THE COLD WAR
The Past, the Future, and a Talk with Deng Xiaoping
Chapter 18. The New Shanghai Compact: Maximizing Opportunity, Minimizing Conflict
For a Policy of "Dynamic Engagement" Starting Points What Is Strength? What Is Weakness? What Is Leverage? Specific Initiatives, Strategies, and Tactics Toward a Partnership That Recognizes Differences: The Shanghai Compact of 2002
Notes
Acknowledgments
Index