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Tables of Contents for The Economics of Complex Spatial Systems
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Preface
v
 
1. Uncertainty and Complexity
1
16
1.1 Towards a Science of Uncertainty
1
3
1.2 Dynamic Systems in Perspective
4
1
1.3 Pathways to Nonlinear Dynamic Modelling
5
3
1.4 Dissipative Structures and Synergetics
8
3
1.5 The Science of Complexity in the Space-Economy
11
3
1.6 Structure of the Book
14
3
2. Nonlinear Dynamics in Spatial Systems: The Relevance of Chaos and Asymmetric Behaviour
17
24
2.1 Nonlinear Modelling: Exploring the Scene
17
1
2.2 Pathways to Nonlinearities and Chaos
18
7
2.3 Modelling Chaos Phenomena
25
3
2.4 Chaos Theory and Asymmetries in Economics
28
6
2.5 Analysis of Chaos in Regional Economics
34
6
2.5.1 Introduction
34
1
2.5.2 Urban systems
34
3
2.5.3 Transport systems
37
1
2.5.4 Migration systems
38
1
2.5.5 Industrial/production systems
38
1
2.5.6 General comments
39
1
2.6 Concluding Remarks
40
1
3. Evolutionary Approaches to Spatial-Economic Systems: The Relevance of Ecologically-Based Models
41
34
3.1 Introduction
41
1
3.2 Connections between Ecology and Economics
42
2
3.3 Ecologically-Based Models
44
7
3.3.1 The May model
44
1
3.3.2 The Lotka-Volterra model
45
6
3.4 Niche Theory as a Unifying Framework
51
4
3.4.1 Niche concepts
51
1
3.4.2 Formalization of the niche concept
52
3
3.5 Systems Evolution by means of Niche Chains
55
3
3.5.1 Introduction
55
1
3.5.2 Evolution of self-organizing systems
56
2
3.6 Analysis of a Two-Dimensional Niche System
58
4
3.6.1 Introduction
58
1
3.6.2 A niche model in continuous form
58
2
3.6.3 A niche model in discrete form
60
1
3.6.4 A methodological view
61
1
3.7 Simulation Experiments: Illustration of a Two-Dimensional Niche System
62
5
3.7.1 A simple interurban transport model
62
1
3.7.2 Numerical experiments: the case of a `dominance' competition system
63
3
3.7.3 Numerical experiments: the case of a `dominance' symbiosis system
66
1
3.8 An Economic Interpretation of Niches
67
2
3.8.1 Introduction
67
1
3.8.2 Simulation experiments
68
1
3.9 Simulation Experiments: a Three-Dimensional Niche System
69
3
3.9.1 Introduction
69
1
3.9.2 Simulation experiments
69
3
3.10 A Niche Model for the Evolution of Cities
72
2
3.11 Concluding Remarks
74
1
4. Complex Synergetics: Spatial Growth and Diffusion Processes
75
32
4.1 Space-Time Aspects of Growth and Innovation Diffusion
75
2
4.2 Modelling Innovation Diffusion in a Space-Time Context
77
4
4.3 Modelling Growth and Diffusion Processes: A Nested Synergetic Approach
81
4
4.3.1 Introduction to dynamic diffusion and synergy
81
2
4.3.2 Presentation of a growth diffusion model
83
2
4.4 Simulation Experiments for a Synergetic Dynamic Model for Growth and Innovation Diffusion
85
14
4.4.1 Introduction
85
1
4.4.2 Case 1: two areas (core/periphery)
85
14
4.5 Simulation Experiments for Three-Dimensional Spatial Dynamics
99
6
4.5.1 Introduction
99
2
4.5.2 Case 2: three areas
101
4
4.6 Conclusions and Future Research Directions
105
2
5. Complexity and Connectivity in Multi-Layer Spatial-Economic Systems
107
42
5.1 Introduction
107
1
5.2 Multi-Layer Niche Structures: an Alternative View
108
2
5.3 A Hierarchical Evolutionary Approach to Interacting Spatial Systems
110
2
5.4 A Multi-Layer Economic-Environmental Model for Spatial Competition
112
13
5.4.1 Introduction
112
1
5.4.2 A two-layer model with three competing modes
113
1
5.4.3 Simulation experiments for the modal choice model
114
10
5.4.4 Concluding remarks
124
1
5.5 A Multi-Layer Complex Modal Choice Model with Dynamic Growth Rates
125
7
5.5.1 Introduction
125
1
5.5.2 Stable behaviour
125
3
5.5.3 Cyclical/irregular behaviour
128
4
5.6 Modelling Spatial Complexity and (In)stability
132
14
5.6.1 Connectivity, networks and complexity in spatial-economic growth
132
2
5.6.2 Connectivity in space-time systems
134
1
5.6.3 A simple spatial-economic growth model
135
1
5.6.4 Stability and complexity in a simple spatial network model
136
10
5.7 Conclusion and Future Research Directions
146
3
6. The Economics of Network Synergy and Spatial Evolution
149
44
6.1 Network synergy: an Introduction
149
2
6.2 Network Synergy and Performance
151
3
6.3 An Economic Performance Analysis of Network Links
154
3
6.4 A Single Mode Analysis for Network Behaviour
157
4
6.5 A Multi-Modal Analysis for Network Behaviour
161
1
6.6 Towards Dynamic Network Synergy Models in an Evolutionary Perspective
162
23
6.6.1 Introduction
162
1
6.6.2 Prey-predator relationships between the input factors
163
2
6.6.3 Symbiotic relationships between the input factors
165
2
6.6.4 Ecological relationships between input factors and output
167
8
6.6.5 Competitive relationships between input factors
175
10
6.7 Conclusions
185
2
Annex 6A Typologies of Network Performance Attractors
187
6
7. Neural Networks for the Analysis of Complex Spatial Systems
193
22
7.1 Introduction to Neurocomputing
193
3
7.2 A Brief History of Neural Network Analysis
196
1
7.3 The Structure of Neural Networks
197
4
7.3.1 Micro-structure
198
1
7.3.2 Meso-structure
199
2
7.3.3 Macro-structure
201
1
7.4 The Learning Phase in Neural Networks
201
4
7.4.1 Supervisor learning
202
2
7.4.2 Unsupervisor learning
204
1
7.5 Neural Networks and the Social Sciences
205
2
7.6 Applications of Neural Networks in Spatial Economics and Transportation Science
207
5
7.6.1 Introduction
207
1
7.6.2 Neural Networks in spatial economic systems
207
4
7.6.3 Neural Networks in transport systems
211
1
7.7 Concluding Remarks
212
3
8. Complex Spatial Interaction Systems: Empirical Applications by Means of Neural Networks and Logit Models
215
24
8.1 Introduction
215
1
8.2 The Models Adopted
216
3
8.2.1 Introduction
216
1
8.2.2 The logit approach
217
1
8.2.3 The feedforward neural net model
218
1
8.2.4 Statistical indicators
218
1
8.3 Neural Networks and Logit Models: Applications to Passenger Transport Flows in Italy
219
11
8.3.1 Introduction
219
2
8.3.2 Spatial forecasting results
221
4
8.3.3 Impacts of transport time
225
4
8.3.4 Concluding remarks
229
1
8.4 Neural Networks and Logit Models: Applications to European Freight Transport Flows
230
7
8.4.1 Introduction
230
1
8.4.2 Spatial forecasting results
231
4
8.4.3 Sensitivity analysis by means of social costs scenarios
235
2
8.5 Conclusions
237
2
9. The Complex Dynamics of Spatial-Economic Systems Revisited
239
8
9.1 Nonlinear Pathways: Reprise
239
5
9.2 Nonlinear Pathways to the Future
244
3
References
247
17
Acknowledgements
264
1
Index
265