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Tables of Contents for Modeling the Earth's Climate and Its Variability
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Organizers
ix
Lecturers
xi
Seminar Speakers
xiii
Participants
xv
Preface (French)
xxi
Preface (English)
xxv
MAIN COURSES
The Observed Climate of the 20th Century
1
138
E.M. Rasmusson
M. Chelliah
C.F. Ropelewski
Climatology: From statistics to science
5
13
The evolution of climate science
5
3
Characteristics and limitations of the instrumental data bases
8
7
Interannual to interdecadal variability
15
2
Modern climate diagnostics
17
1
The atmospheric general circulation
18
17
From Hadley to the mid-20th century: Theory underconstrained by observations
20
4
Post-World War II: Resolving the controversies
24
1
Quantifying the balance requirements
25
1
Angular momentum balance
25
2
Atmospheric energy cycle
27
2
Planetary heat balance
29
3
Hydrologic cycle
32
3
The annual cycle
35
26
Basic controls
43
9
Focus on the tropics
52
4
A monsoon system perspective
56
1
Focus on the extratropics
57
4
Interannual variability
61
38
Atmospheric teleconnections
62
5
The ENSO phenomenon: Early investigations
67
4
ENSO cycle time series
71
1
ENSO warm episode evolution
72
16
ENSO global response
88
1
Tropical anomalies
88
10
Extratropical anomalies
98
1
Decadal/interdecadal variability
99
40
Focus on the tropical oceans
102
1
Pacific sector
102
2
Atlantic sector
104
1
Focus on the extratropics
105
1
Northern Hemisphere wintertime temperatures: relationship to the SO and the NAO
105
6
North Atlantic and North Pacific
111
8
Continental precipitation variability
119
1
Sahel rainfall
120
6
North American drought
126
1
Indian rainfall
127
1
Concluding remarks
128
1
References
129
10
Numerical Modelling of the Earth's Climate
139
98
L. Bengtsson
A strategic approach to climate modelling
143
8
Introduction
143
1
Dynamics of climate
144
1
Phillips' experiment
145
1
The key scientific issues in 1955
146
1
Climate modelling for different time-scales
147
4
Climate modelling
151
15
Introduction
151
2
The climate model as a mathematical system
153
3
Overall design of an atmospheric climate model
156
2
Numerical solution
158
2
Physical parameterization
160
2
Climate model performance
162
4
An atmospheric model for climate simulation and prediction studies
166
29
Introduction
166
1
Horizontal diffusion
167
1
Surface fluxes and vertical diffusion
168
4
Land surface processes
172
1
Gravity wave drag
172
2
Cumulus convection
174
1
Adjustment closure
174
2
Stratiform clouds
176
2
Radiation
178
1
Longwave radiation
178
3
Shortwave radiation
181
4
Shortwave cloud optical properties
185
1
Longwave cloud optical properties
186
1
Effective radii of cloud droplets and ice crystals
187
1
Surface albedo
188
1
Solar zenith angle
188
1
Model validation
188
1
Radiation and clouds
189
2
The hydrological cycle
191
1
The large scale extra-tropical circulation
192
3
Climate response to greenhouse gas forcing
195
14
Introduction
195
3
Climate feedback processes
198
2
The Wonderland climate model
200
3
Forcing experiments with the Wonderland model
203
1
Response to 2 x CO2 and 2% solar forcing
204
1
Response to the horizontal and vertical distribution of the forcing
205
2
Forcing experiments with more realistic climate models
207
2
Climate change prediction
209
28
Introduction
209
3
Mechanisms behind climate change
212
1
How can climate change?
212
1
Changes in the solar radiation
212
1
Changes in the greenhouse gases
213
1
Changes in atmospheric aerosols
214
1
Internal, natural variations
215
2
Coupled models
217
4
Coupled model experiments
221
1
Transient greenhouse gas experiment
222
1
Changes in the energy cycle
223
2
The hydrological cycle
225
2
Temperature changes
227
3
References
230
7
Ocean Modelling and the Role of the Ocean in the Climate System
237
78
P. Delecluse
G. Madec
Physical properties of the ocean
241
8
General structure
241
1
Why does the ocean move?
241
1
Radiative forcing
241
2
Momentum flux
243
1
Turbulent fluxes
244
2
Freshwater flux
246
1
Mean vertical structure
247
1
Seasonal cycle of the mixed layer
247
1
Midlatitude thermocline ventilation
247
1
Equatorial thermocline
247
1
Deep convection and sea ice
248
1
Turbulence of the ocean
249
1
Equations of motion
249
6
The physical equations
249
1
Basic assumptions (refer to Pedlosky, 1987)
249
1
The Primitive Equations
250
1
The boundary conditions
251
1
Horizontal pressure gradient formulation
252
1
Pressure formulation
252
1
Diagnosing the surface pressure gradient
253
1
Boundary conditions
254
1
Modelling approach
255
22
System of coordinates
255
1
Model equations
256
2
Vertical system of coordinates
258
1
Meridian convergence at the pole
259
1
Discretization in space
260
1
Arrangement of variables for the C grid
260
1
Discrete operators
261
1
Conservation properties for the dynamics
262
3
Conservation properties for the thermodynamics
265
1
Discretization in time
265
1
Robust diagnostic modelling
266
1
Acceleration of convergence
267
2
Surface boundary conditions
269
1
Subgrid scale parameterisations
270
1
Vertical mixing
270
3
Convection
273
2
Lateral mixing
275
2
The global coupled system
277
11
Ocean-only models
277
1
Space or time?
277
1
Oceanic observations
278
1
Atmospheric forcing
278
1
Sensitivity to parameterisation
278
3
Coupled models
281
1
General description of the problem
281
2
Illustration of drift
283
1
Flux correction
283
2
Sensitivity
285
3
The equatorial coupled system
288
20
Oceanic equatorial waves
289
1
Vertical eigenvectors
290
1
Meridional normal modes
291
2
Inertia-gravity and Rossby waves
293
2
Mixed Rossby--gravity wave
295
1
Equatorial Kelvin wave
295
1
Equatorial waves and El Nino
296
1
Response of forced simulations
297
1
Coupled models
298
3
Prediction
301
3
Some new features to study El Nino
304
1
Meridional coupling
304
1
Barrier layer and freshwater flux
305
3
Conclusion
308
7
References
309
6
Past Climatic Changes
315
62
J.-C. Duplessy
Paleoclimatic and Paleoceanographic tools
319
18
Introduction
319
1
Transfer functions
320
1
The Imbrie and Kipp (I&K) technique
320
2
The Modern Analog Technique (MAT)
322
1
Improving or validating transfer functions
322
4
Stable isotope ratio variations
326
1
Oxygen isotope fractionation during the water cycle
327
2
Oxygen isotope fractionation during carbonate precipitation
329
3
Isotope fractionation during the carbon cycle
332
2
Dating
334
1
Radiocarbon
334
2
Uranium series disequilibria
336
1
Longer time scales
336
1
The climatic record of the Plio-Pleistocene and the evidence for the Astronomical Theory of paleoclimates
337
14
Historcal introduction
337
2
The Astronomical Theory of glaciations
339
3
Extension of the climatic record over the last 6 million years
342
4
The last climatic cycle
346
2
The last glacial maximum
348
2
The last climatic optimum
350
1
Rapid variations within the climate system
351
26
Introduction
351
1
Evidence of rapid climatic change during the deglaciation
352
1
Evidence of rapid climatic change during the glaciation
353
4
Mechanisms of rapid climatic change under glacial conditions
357
2
A case for the Younger Dryas
359
3
Evidence of rapid climatic change during the Eemian
362
1
Evidence of rapid climatic change during the Holocene
363
4
Modeling of abrupt climatic changes and implications for future climates
367
2
References
369
8
Paleomyths I Have Known
377
72
T.J. Crowley
Introduction
381
1
General features of past climate change
381
4
Some significant misconceptions about past climate change
385
2
Discussion of the ``paleo-paradigms''
387
23
``There is growing evidence that the tropics were about 5°C colder during the last glacial maximum''
387
8
``North Atlantic deep water variations cause global temperature change''
395
3
``Global warmth during the early Holocene and Last Interglacial was greater than present''
398
5
``Deep water formation occurred in the subtropics during ice-free periods''
403
3
``There is no evidence that low frequency variations in solar irradiance have occurred''
406
4
Application to the problem of decadal--centennial scale variability
410
10
Nature of observed changes
410
4
Evaluating the relative contribution of different mechanisms to decadal--centennial climate change
414
2
Variations of North Atlantic deep water
416
1
Additional sources of oceanic variability
417
1
Concluding remarks on natural variability: A challenge to modelers
418
2
Concluding remarks
420
11
References
422
9
SPECIALIZED COURSES
Climate Variability of a Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere--Land Surface Model: Implication for the Detection of Global Warming
431
2
S. Manabe
R.J. Stouffer
Introduction
433
1
Numerical experiment
433
3
Local variability
436
6
Global variability
442
3
Transient model response
445
1
Concluding remarks
446
3
References
447
2
Variability of the Oceanic Thermohaline Circulation
449
78
W.R. Holland
A. Capotondi
Introduction
453
1
Experiments with a sector ocean driven by stochastic forcing
454
32
The model
457
3
Surface stochastic forcing
460
4
Thermal boundary conditions
464
3
The stochastically forced experiments
467
1
Strong restoring cases
468
4
Weak SST constraint
472
8
Sensitivity to the spatial pattern
480
1
Thermal stochastic forcing
481
1
Effects of nonlinearities in the equation of state
482
3
Discussion and conclusions for sector ocean model results
485
1
Experiments with a regional North Atlantic ocean model driven by stochastic forcing
486
6
A numerical experiment with the NCAR climate system model
492
30
The ocean model and data sets used in the analyses
494
1
Thermohaline circulation variability: year 30--year 299
495
10
Period 1 (year 110--189)
505
7
Period 2 (year 200--299)
512
9
Discussion of CSM/North Atlantic results
521
1
Discussion and conclusions
522
5
References
523
4
Modeling Extreme Climates of the Past 20,000 Years with General Circulation Models
527
40
S. Joussaume
Introduction
531
2
Methodology
533
4
Simulating past climates
533
3
Model--data comparisons
536
1
The last glacial maximum
537
12
PMIP experiments of the last glacial maximum
538
6
Model--data comparisons
544
4
Additional feedbacks
548
1
Mid-Holocene climate
549
10
PMIP simulations of the mid-Holocene
550
2
Model--model comparisons
552
1
Model--data comparisons
553
2
Additional feedbacks
555
4
Conclusions
559
8
References
560
7
Seminars by Participants
567