search for books and compare prices
Tables of Contents for Toward the Year 2000
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
DANIEL BELL
STEPHEN R. GRAUBARD
Preface to the MIT Press Edition
ix
 
DANIEL BELL
The Year 2000--The Trajectory of an Idea
1
16
Working Session One
17
56
Preliminary Memorandum to the Commission from the Chairman
17
4
Baselines for the Future
21
10
Alternative Futures
31
14
Centralization and Decentralization
45
11
The Need for Models
56
7
A Summary by the Chairman
63
10
Some Specific Problems
73
254
HERMAN KAHN
ANTHONY J. WIENER
The Next Thirty-Three Years: A Framework for Speculation
73
28
FRED CHARLES IKLE
Can Social Predictions Be Evaluated?
101
26
DONALD A. SCHON
Forecasting and Technological Forecasting
127
12
MARTIN SHUBIK
Information, Rationality, and Free Choice in a Future Democratic Society
139
8
LEONARD J. DUHL
Planning and Predicting: Or What to Do When You Don't Know the Names of the Variables
147
10
HARVEY S. PERLOFF
Modernizing Urban Development
157
12
DANIEL P. MOYNIHAN
The Relationship of Federal to Local Authorities
169
8
LAWRENCE K. FRANK
The Need for a New Political Theory
177
8
STEPHEN R. GRAUBARD
University Cities in the Year 2000
185
6
HAROLD ORLANS
Educational and Scientific Institutions
191
9
ERNST MAYR
Biological Man and the Year 2000
200
5
GARDNER C. QUARTON
Deliberate Efforts to Control Human Behavior and Modify Personality
205
17
KRISTER STENDAHL
Religion, Mysticism, and the Institutional Church
222
6
ERIK H. ERIKSON
Memorandum on Youth
228
11
MARGARET MEAD
The Life Cycle and Its Variations: The Division of Roles
239
5
HARRY KALVEN, JR.
The Problems of Privacy in the Year 2000
244
7
GEORGE A. MILLER
Some Psychological Perspectives on the Year 2000
251
14
DAVID RIESMAN
Notes on Meritocracy
265
12
JAMES Q. WILSON
Violence
277
20
JOHN R. PIERCE
Communication
297
13
EUGENE V. ROSTOW
Thinking About the Future of International Society
310
5
SAMUEL P. HUNTINGTON
Political Development and the Decline of the American System of World Order
315
3
ITHIEL DE SOLA POOL
The International System in the Next Half Century
318
9
Working Session Two
327
51
The Nature and Limitations of Forecasting
327
12
Four Futures
339
16
The Need for Normative Statements
355
11
A Summary by the Chairman
366
5
Members of the Commission on the Year 2000
371
1
The Working Parties
372
6
DANIEL BELL
Coda: Work in Further Progress
378
4
Notes on Contributors
382
5
Index
387