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Philip E. Tetlock has written 12 work(s)
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Paperback:

9781522758204 | Createspace Independent Pub, December 14, 2015, cover price $6.99

cover image for 9781511364041
Product Description: From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals...read more

CD/Spoken Word:

9781511364041 | Com/cdr un edition (Brilliance Audio, October 13, 2015), cover price $29.99 | About this edition: From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

Hardcover:

9780691123028 | Princeton Univ Pr, July 5, 2005, cover price $52.00 | About this edition: The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion.

Paperback:

9780691128719 | Princeton Univ Pr, July 31, 2006, cover price $33.95 | About this edition: The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion.

Miscellaneous:

9781400830312 | Princeton Univ Pr, June 22, 2009, cover price $24.95

cover image for 9780472031436
Product Description: What if the Persians had won at Salamis? What if Christ had not been crucified? What if the Chinese had harnessed steam power before the West? Disparaged by some as a mere parlor game, counterfactual history is seen by others as an indispensable historical tool...read more
By Richard Ned Lebow (editor), Geoffrey Parker (editor) and Philip E. Tetlock (editor)

Hardcover:

9780472115433 | Univ of Michigan Pr, October 2, 2006, cover price $90.00 | About this edition: What if the Persians had won at Salamis?

Paperback:

9780472031436 | Univ of Michigan Pr, January 30, 2007, cover price $38.50 | About this edition: What if the Persians had won at Salamis?

cover image for 9780300065350
Product Description: Why do citizens in pluralist democracies disagree collectively about the very values they agree on individually? This text highlights the inescapable conflicts of rights and values at the heart of democratic politics.

Hardcover:

9780300065350 | Yale Univ Pr, November 27, 1996, cover price $60.00 | About this edition: Why do citizens in pluralist democracies disagree collectively about the very values they agree on individually?

Paperback:

9780300069815 | Yale Univ Pr, October 1, 1996, cover price $27.00 | About this edition: Why do citizens in pluralist democracies disagree collectively about the very values they agree on individually?

cover image for 9780691027913
Product Description: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data...read more
By Aaron Belkin (editor) and Philip E. Tetlock (editor)

Hardcover:

9780691027920 | Princeton Univ Pr, June 1, 1996, cover price $65.00 | About this edition: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan.

Paperback:

9780691027913 | Princeton Univ Pr, August 19, 1996, cover price $66.00 | About this edition: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan.

cover image for 9780804724821
Product Description: It has been half a century since the publication of An American Dilemma, Gunnar Myrdal's seminal work on race in America. This book is an attempt to contribute to a fresh understanding of this dilemma by viewing the issues of race as they are now, not as they were a generation or so ago...read more

Hardcover:

9780804721325 | Stanford Univ Pr, September 1, 1993, cover price $65.00

Paperback:

9780804724821 | Reissue edition (Stanford Univ Pr, January 1, 1995), cover price $25.95 | About this edition: It has been half a century since the publication of An American Dilemma, Gunnar Myrdal's seminal work on race in America.

cover image for 9780521407700
Product Description: Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, Reasoning and Choice offers a major new theoretical explanation of how ordinary citizens figure out what they favor and oppose politically...read more (view table of contents, read Amazon.com's description)

Hardcover:

9780521402552 | Cambridge Univ Pr, September 1, 1991, cover price $119.99 | About this edition: Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, Reasoning and Choice offers a major new theoretical explanation of how ordinary citizens figure out what they favor and oppose politically.

Paperback:

9780521407700 | Reprint edition (Cambridge Univ Pr, September 1, 1993), cover price $49.99 | About this edition: Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, Reasoning and Choice offers a major new theoretical explanation of how ordinary citizens figure out what they favor and oppose politically.

cover image for 9780195057706
Product Description: If chances of a superpower nuclear war have recently diminished, the chances of international conflict have not--as demonstrated in Iraq, Sri Lanka, and the former country of Yugoslavia. Working under the aegis of the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, a panel of distinguished scholars examine social and behavior sciences and the contributions they make in understanding factors which may promote or inhibit international conflict...read more

Hardcover:

9780195057690 | Oxford Univ Pr, February 1, 1993, cover price $80.00 | About this edition: If chances of a superpower nuclear war have recently diminished, the chances of international conflict have not--as demonstrated in Iraq, Sri Lanka, and the former country of Yugoslavia.

Paperback:

9780195057706 | Oxford Univ Pr, April 1, 1993, cover price $45.00 | About this edition: If chances of a superpower nuclear war have recently diminished, the chances of international conflict have not--as demonstrated in Iraq, Sri Lanka, and the former country of Yugoslavia.

cover image for 9781560320630
Product Description: First published in 1992. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Hardcover:

9781560320630 | Taylor & Francis, January 1, 1992, cover price $145.00 | About this edition: First published in 1992.

Product Description: Are policymakers capable of learning about the complex international environment they must deal with when formulating foreign policy? Interest in the phenomenon of "learning" has been growing, driven in part by the advent of Gorbachev, and by prospects for ending the Cold War...read more

Hardcover:

9780813382647 | Westview Pr, June 1, 1991, cover price $95.50 | About this edition: Interest in the phenomenon of learning has been growing, driven in part by the advent of Gorbachev and by prospects for ending the Cold War.

Paperback:

9780813382654 | Westview Pr, June 1, 1991, cover price $29.95 | About this edition: Are policymakers capable of learning about the complex international environment they must deal with when formulating foreign policy?

cover image for 9780195057683
Product Description: In the last year the world has witnessed changes in East-West relations that would have been unthinkable only a short time ago. The Berlin Wall has crumbled, Eastern Europe has thrown out its authoritarian leaders, and the Soviet Union itself has undergone dramatic changes in political structure and foreign policy...read more

Hardcover:

9780195057676, titled "Behavior, Society and Nuclear War" | Oxford Univ Pr, December 13, 1990, cover price $55.00 | About this edition: There is a broad global consensus on the imperative to avoid nuclear war, but that consensus provides little guidance for policy.
9780195057652 | Oxford Univ Pr, January 18, 1990, cover price $58.00 | About this edition: All people wish to avoid nuclear war, but this fact provides little guidance for policy.

Paperback:

9780195057683, titled "Behavior, Society and Nuclear War" | Oxford Univ Pr on Demand, December 13, 1990, cover price $59.95 | About this edition: In the last year the world has witnessed changes in East-West relations that would have been unthinkable only a short time ago.
9780195057669, titled "Behavior, Society and Nuclear War" | Oxford Univ Pr on Demand, January 18, 1990, cover price $59.95 | About this edition: All people wish to avoid nuclear war, but this fact provides little guidance for policy.

displaying 1 to 12 | at end