Product Description: This paper considers the possible effects of making inferences about individuals from aggregate data. It assumes a knowledge of regression analysis, and explores the utility of techniques designed to make the inferences in causal modelling more reliable, including a comparison between ecological regression models and ecological correlation...read more

Nearly seventy-five years after World War II, a contentious debate lingers over whether Franklin Delano Roosevelt turned his back on the Jews of Hitler's Europe. Defenders claim that FDR saved millions of potential victims by defeating Nazi Germany. Others revile him as morally indifferent and indict him for keeping America's gates closed to Jewish refugees and failing to bomb Auschwitz's gas chambers. In an extensive examination of this impassioned debate, Richard Breitman and Allan J. Lichtman find that the president was neither savior nor bystander. In FDR and the Jews, they draw upon many new primary sources to offer an intriguing portrait of a consummate politician-compassionate but also pragmatic-struggling with opposing priorities under perilous conditions. For most of his presidency Roosevelt indeed did little to aid the imperiled Jews of Europe. He put domestic policy priorities ahead of helping Jews and deferred to others' fears of an anti-Semitic backlash. Yet he also acted decisively at times to rescue Jews, often withstanding contrary pressures from his advisers and the American public. Even Jewish citizens who petitioned the president could not agree on how best to aid their coreligionists abroad. Though his actions may seem inadequate in retrospect, the authors bring to light a concerned leader whose efforts on behalf of Jews were far greater than those of any other world figure. His moral position was tempered by the political realities of depression and war, a conflict all too familiar to American politicians in the twenty-first century.

Explains how the critical factors that lead to victory in the presidential campaign are determined long before voting takes place

Product Description: With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections...read more

Product Description: Contains articles first presented at the 1977 June 14-17 "Kin and Communities" symposium in Washington D.C., chaired by Dr. Margaret Mead. Part of the Smithsonian International Symposia Series.

Product Description: Think that Richard Nixon lost the 1960 presidential election because he sweated on TV? Or that John Kerry was “swiftboated” out of the presidency in 2004? Think again! In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J...read more

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Identifies the factors that forecast the outcome of a presidential election, and discusses what they reveal about American politics

Offers a social-historical approach to recording family history by providing information on using personal archives, conducting and interpreting interviews, and planning and completing research