search for books and compare prices
cover image
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction: Includes PDF Disc
Price
Store
Arrives
Preparing
Shipping
The price is the lowest for any condition, which may be new or used; other conditions may also be available. Rental copies must be returned at the end of the designated period, and may involve a deposit.
Jump down to see edition details for: CD/Spoken Word
Bibliographic Detail
Publisher Brilliance Audio
Publication date October 13, 2015
Binding CD/Spoken Word
Edition Com/cdr un
Book category Adult Non-Fiction
ISBN-13 9781511364041
ISBN-10 1511364041
Dimensions 1 by 6.75 by 5.50 in.
Weight 0.55 lbs.
Original list price $29.99
Other format details audio
Summaries and Reviews
Amazon.com description: Product Description:

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.



Editions
CD/Spoken Word
Book cover for 9781511364041
 
The price comparison is for this edition
Com/cdr un edition from Brilliance Audio (October 13, 2015)
9781511364041 | details & prices | 6.75 × 5.50 × 1.00 in. | 0.55 lbs | List price $29.99
About: From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Pricing is shown for items sent to or within the U.S., excluding shipping and tax. Please consult the store to determine exact fees. No warranties are made express or implied about the accuracy, timeliness, merit, or value of the information provided. Information subject to change without notice. isbn.nu is not a bookseller, just an information source.