List of figures

List of tables

Foreword

Acknowledgements

List of conference participants

1 The hidden Hungarian miracle

Laszlo Halpern

Charles Wyplosz

1 Introduction

2 Overview of the years 1989-97

3 Early microeconomic adjustment

4 Macroeconomics

5 Conclusion: revisionism and optimism

PART ONE: MACROECONOMIC POLICY

2 Fiscal difficulties in the transition: the case of Hungary between 1990 and 1995

Pal Gaspar

1 Introduction

2 Fiscal trends in Hungary between 1990 and 1995

3 Factors affecting fiscal developments

4 The growth of public debt

5 Macroeconomic impact of the growing fiscal deficit

6 The reduction of the fiscal deficit and stabilisation of public debt

7 Conclusions

Appendix 2.1: structural financial data, 1990-5

Discussion

David Begg

3 The interest rate transmission mechanism in Hungary, 1991-1995

Balazs Vilagi

Janos Vincze

1 Introduction: Hungarian monetary policy, 1991-5

2 Characterising monetary policy

3 Theoretical background

4 Econometric analysis

5 Summary

Discussion

Giancarlo Perasso

4 The nature of Hungarian inflation

Istvan Hamecz

Janos Vincze

Istvan Zsoldos

1 Introduction

2 Money and prices

3 Data analysis of disaggregated consumer prices

4 Exchange rates and prices

5 Summary and conclusions

Appendix 4.1: `most increasing' and `least increasing' prices, 1991:1--1996:2

Appendix 4.2: estimation and prediction in the random coefficients model

Appendix 4.3: results of panel data estimation

Discussion

Ratna Sahay

5 The hidden economies of Visegrad countries in international comparison: a household electricity approach

Maria Lacko

1 Introduction

2 Alternative definitions of the hidden economy

3 The causes of the hidden economy in market economies and in socialist/post-socialist economies

4 New estimation method for the size of the hidden economy: the household electricity approach

5 Calculating the share of the hidden economy in GDP

6 Indices of the hidden economy and the currency ratios

7 The position of Hungary, the Czech republic, Slovakia and Poland as determined by the model

8 Unemployment, self-employment and the hidden economy in post-socialist countries

9 Summary and conclusions

Discussion

Michael A. Landesmann

PART TWO: INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE

6 Corporate governance in the transition-the case of Hungary: do new structures help create efficient ownership control?

Adam Torok

1 Introduction

2 Models of CG

3 CG and economic transition

4 Evolution or bifurcation?

5 Conclusions for legislation and policy

Appendix 6.1: the enterprise sample

Appendix 6.2: list of major laws related to CG and privatisation

7 Corporate performance in the transition: econometric analysis of Hungarian exporting firms, 1985-1994

Laszlo Halpern

Gabor Korosi

1 General performance

2 Empirical model of profit

3 Cobb-Douglas production functions

4 Conclusions

Discussion

Jan Svejnar

8 Hungary's Ponzi game

Laszlo Szakadat

1 Reforming the Hungarian banking sector, 1987-91

2 Credit conciliation

3 Bank conciliation

4 Debtor conciliation

5 Privatisation of state banks

6 Assessment and policy recommendations

Discussion

Jerome Sgard

1 The causes of the banking crisis

2 What went wrong during the restructuring process?

3 What might the future consequences of the banking crisis be?

PART THREE: LABOUR MARKETS

9 The minimum wage in Hungary: subsistence minimum and/or bargaining tool?

Jeno Koltay

1 Minimum wages in market economies

2 Economic effects of minimum wages

3 Wage control and minimum wage in Hungary before 1989

4 Wage guidelines and minimum wage fixing after 1989

5 Subsistence minimum and minimum wage

6 Wage bargaining and/or minimum wage bargaining

7 Protection of the low-paid and the minimum wage

8 Enforcement and fragmentation of the minimum wage

9 Minimum wage prospects and possible changes

10 Concluding remarks

Discussion

George Kopits

10 Welfare institutions and the transition: in search of efficiency and equity

Ivan Csaba

Andras Semjen

1 Introduction

2 Some general trends

3 Public pensions

4 Health care

5 Conclusions

Discussion

Christine H. Allison

1 Rethinking the role of the state--the world over

2 Refocusing on the effectiveness of welfare programmes and social spending

3 How well has Hungary done in recasting the role of the state?

11 Regional unemployment rate differentials in Hungary, 1990-1995: the changing role of race and human capital

Arpad Abraham

Gabor Kertesi

1 The time pattern of regional unemployment rate differentials

2 An intertemporal statistical model

3 On the employment discrimination against the Gypsy minority

4 Conclusion

Appendix 11.1: the determinants of individual chances of unemployment (logit estimation)

Appendix 11.2: relationship between the Gypsy ratio and the migration balance

Discussion

Michael Burda

Index