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Tables of Contents for Saudi Arabia Enters the Twenty-First Century
Chapter/Section Title
Page #
Page Count
Illustrations
xiii
Preface
xix
Acknowledgments
xxiii
Introduction
1
40
Oil and Saudi Progress
4
9
Historical Origins
13
6
The Political and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Twenty-First Century
19
1
The Coming Domestic Challenges
20
4
The Economic and Demographic Challenges of the Twenty-First Century
24
11
``Oil Crash'' and ``Oil Boom'' in 1996--2001: A Case Study
24
6
The Impact of Demographics: A Rising Population Means Declining per Capita Oil Income
30
1
The Ongoing Saudi Response
31
3
Setting the Pace of Implementation
34
1
The Security Challenges of the Twenty-First Century
35
6
Territory, Strategic Depth, and Vulnerabilities
35
1
Strategic Concerns and Military Requirements
36
1
The Problem of Strategic Dependence on the West
37
4
Foreign Relations and External Security
41
90
Iran and Iraq: The Primary Threats
44
19
The Problem of Iran
44
8
The Problem of Iraq
52
1
Trying to Live with the ``Enemy''
53
3
The Threat of Iraqi Invasion
56
3
Iraq and Asymmetric Warfare
59
1
Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction
60
2
The Saudi Approach to ``Dual Containment'' and the Overthrow of Saddam Hussein
62
1
The Southern Gulf and Yemen
63
23
Relations with Yemen
63
7
Relations with Oman
70
1
Relations with Qatar
71
4
Relations with Kuwait
75
2
Relations with Bahrain
77
3
Relations with the UAE
80
4
Saudi Arabia and the GCC
84
2
Relations with Israel and Policy Toward the Arab-Israeli Conflict
86
12
The Saudi Shift Toward Peace
87
2
Peace and the Second Intifada
89
2
Crown Prince Abdullah's Peace Proposal
91
3
The Arab Summit: Beirut, Lebanon, 2002
94
2
The Arab Peace Initiative
96
2
Relations with Egypt
98
1
Relations with Syria
99
1
Relations with Jordan
100
1
Relations with the Greater Arab World
101
2
Relations with the United States and the West
103
17
The Formative Period: 1933--1953
105
1
Nasser and Arab Nationalism: 1953--1968
106
4
The June 1967 War to the October 1973 War
110
1
The October 1973 War to the Fall of the Shah
111
1
The Fall of the Shah to the Gulf War
112
4
The Gulf War to the Second Intifada and September 11, 2001
116
2
Developments Since September 11
118
2
Saudi Foreign Policy at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century
120
11
Politics and Internal Stability
131
30
The Monarchy, the Majlis al-Shura, and the Royal Family
132
24
Evolution and Stability
134
2
Current Prospects for the Succession
136
5
The Need for Change in the Next Generation
141
3
The Saudi Cabinet or Council of Ministers
144
3
The Creation of the Majlis al-Shura
147
5
The Changing Saudi Political System
152
4
Political Reform and Opposition
156
5
Opposition and Islamic Extremism
161
68
Working Within the System: The Role of Saudi ``Modernizers''
162
1
The Character and Impact of Saudi Puritanism
163
12
Putting Saudi Wahhabi and Salafi Beliefs into Perspective
164
2
Charity and Extremism: The Flow of Money
166
1
Most Islamic Puritanism and Extremism Is Not ``Wahhabism''
167
2
Islamic Extremism and Saudi Youth
169
4
Trying to Co-opt Islamic Extremism: The Rising at the Grand Mosque
173
1
Islamic Extremism and the Failure of Co-option in the 1980s and 1990s
174
1
Education as a Self-Inflicted Wound
175
2
Making Women Part of the Problem, Rather than Part of the Solution
177
2
Religious Extremism and Active Political Opposition
179
27
Moderate Opposition: Religious Fundamentalism
181
2
Hard-line Peaceful Opposition: Sheikh Safar al-Hawali
183
1
Nonviolent Islamist Opposition: Salman al-Auda
184
1
Nonviolent Islamic Opposition: Sheikh `Ayd al-Qarni
185
1
``Quasi-Violent'' Islamist Opposition: The Committee for the Defense of Legitimate Rights (CDLR) and Muhammad al-Mas'ari
185
3
Violent Islamic Opposition: The Saudi National Guard Bombing
188
2
Militant Islamist Opposition: The Al-Khobar Tragedy
190
1
The Initial Course of the Al-Khobar Investigation
191
3
Serious Progress in the Al-Khobar Investigation After May 1997
194
2
The United States Issues an Indictment
196
1
The Role of the Saudi Hezbollah
197
3
The Detailed History of the Attack
200
4
The Role of Iran and the Threat of an American Follow-up
204
1
The Saudis React with Denials
205
1
Sunni versus Shi'ite
206
4
Militant Saudi Extremists: Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda
210
3
Militant Saudi Extremists: Other Threats
213
1
Opposition, Extremism, Terrorism, and Saudi Counterterrorism
214
7
International Cooperation
216
1
Arrests and Questioning of Suspects
216
1
Legal and Regulatory Actions, Freezing Terrorist Assets, and Combating Money Laundering
217
2
Actions Taken in Regard to Charitable Organizations
219
1
Other Initiatives Related to Fighting Terrorism
220
1
Looking Toward the Future
221
8
Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges
229
88
The Dynamics of Recent Demographic Change
229
6
Trends in Total Population
230
2
Trends Toward Urbanization
232
1
Trends Toward Education
232
2
Population Exposure to Media
234
1
The Future Pace of Demographic Change
235
4
Demographics, Per Capita Income, and Consumption
239
8
Historical Patterns of Inadequate Real Economic Growth
239
4
Population, Per Capita Income, and Relative Wealth
243
4
Redefining ``Oil Wealth'' in Macroeconomic and Human Terms
247
3
Demographic Pressures on Saudi Society and the Saudi Labor Force
250
11
Estimating Future Job Needs
251
5
The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan
256
1
Skill Levels and the Saudi Labor Force
257
4
The ``Youth Explosion,'' Foreign Labor, and Saudisation
261
19
The Blessings and Curses of Saudisation
271
1
Real-World Progress in Saudisation
272
2
The Current Level of Progress and Nonprogress in Saudisation
274
2
Saudisation and Native Saudi Unemployment
276
3
The Impact of the Seventh Development Plan
279
1
Saudi Economic Development versus Saudi Education
280
8
A Mixed Picture of Strengths and Weaknesses
280
1
Progress in the Sixth Development Plan
281
2
The Impact of September 11
283
1
Progress Planned in the Seventh Development Plan
284
2
Looking Toward the Future
286
2
Saudi Entitlements, Infrastructure, and Diversification Problems
288
3
The Challenge of Subsidies
291
3
Pressure on Infrastructure
294
5
Electricity as a Case in Point
294
3
The Broader Infrastructure Problem
297
2
The Interaction Between Demographics, Water, and Agriculture
299
7
Water and the Goals of the Seventh Development Plan
302
1
The Impact of Agriculture
303
2
Sustaining a National Water Problem
305
1
Meeting the Kingdom's Economic, Demographic, and Social Challenges
306
11
Building True Wealth versus Overdependence on Petroleum and the State
317
146
The Saudi Economy at the Edge of the Twenty-First Century
318
25
The Key Challenges the Economic Reform Must Meet
322
1
Tangible Steps Toward Economic Reform
323
3
The Supreme Economic Council
326
1
The Economic Consultative Commission (ECC)
327
1
The Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals (SCPM)
327
4
The Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA)
331
2
A New Foreign Direct Investment Code and Other Measures
333
1
The Provisions of the New Foreign Investment Law
333
1
Reductions in Taxes
334
1
Foreign Ownership of Real Estate
334
1
Fund for the Development of Human Resources
334
1
``Negative List'' of Areas Excluded from Foreign Investment
335
2
Saudi Efforts to Join the WTO
337
3
The Supreme Commission for Tourism
340
1
Saudi Efforts to Use the GCC to Strengthen the Saudi and Gulf Economies
341
1
Future Reforms Now Under Consideration
342
1
Putting Current Saudi Efforts in Perspective: Plans and Goals versus Actions and Achievements
343
8
The History of Saudi Planning: The First through Fourth Development Plans
343
4
The Fifth Development Plan and the Gulf War
347
1
The Sixth Development Plan
348
3
Looking at the Future: The Seventh Development Plan
351
5
The Macroeconomic Implications of the Seventh Development Plan
351
5
The Labor Force Implications of the Seventh Development Plan
356
1
The Challenge of Dependence on Petroleum Exports and Revenues
356
20
The Other Impacts of Petroleum Dependence
365
4
Political and Military Risks of Saudi Overdependence on Petroleum
369
7
``Oil Bust'' and ``Oil Boom'': The Interaction Between OPEC and Market Forces
376
7
OPEC, Mild Winter, and Asian Recession: The Oil Crash of 1997
376
5
The Wheel Turns: The Oil Crash Turns into an Oil Boom
381
2
Oil Wealth and Demographics: Understanding the Future Limits
383
7
The Challenge of Reducing the Government Sector
390
1
Managing and Restructuring the Saudi Budget
390
20
Saudi Budgets in the Early- to Mid-1990s
394
5
Budgets and the Sixth Development Plan
399
1
Budget Deficits, the Oil Crash, and Oil Boom
400
6
The Need for Budget Reforms
406
4
Foreign and Domestic State Debt
410
4
The Limited Impact of the Present Debt Burden
410
1
Past History and Future Risk
411
3
Privatization and the Private Sector: Intentions versus Implementation
414
21
The Seventh Development Plan and Meeting the Challenge of Diversification
420
2
The Growth of the Private Sector
422
3
The Success of Privatization by Firm and Sector
425
1
The Privatization of SABIC and SIPC
425
2
The Privatization of Natural Gas
427
1
The Privatization of Telecommunications
428
1
The Privatization of Saudi Airlines
429
1
The Privatization of Postal Services
429
1
The Privatization of Electricity
429
3
The Privatization of the General Railway Organization
432
1
The Privatization of the General Port Authority
433
1
Overall Progress in Privatization
434
1
Private and Foreign Investment and Banking Reform
435
13
Investment and Stock Market Reform
439
5
Opening Up Saudi Arabia to Foreign Investment
444
4
Broader Goals for Economic and Social Reform
448
15
Shaping the Future of the Saudi Petroleum Sector
463
88
The Critical Global Importance of Saudi Oil Reserves
465
2
Saudi Oil Production
467
20
The History of Saudi Oil Development and the Role of Aramco
467
6
Saudi Oil Production Today
473
3
Oil Production and Quotas
476
7
Saudi Oil Exports
483
2
Expanding Saudi Oil Production
485
2
The Case For and Against Foreign Investment in Crude Oil Production
487
1
Export Facilities and Distribution
487
2
Refining
489
5
Refining in Saudi Arabia
491
2
Refining Overseas
493
1
Petrochemicals
494
4
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC)
495
1
Petrochemicals, Privatization, and Foreign Investment
496
2
Natural Gas
498
4
Saudi Gas Production
502
9
Saudi Domestic Gas Use
504
3
Foreign Investment in the Gas Sector
507
4
Saudi Energy Strategy in the Twenty-First Century
511
14
The Strategy in the Seventh Development Plan
511
2
The Statements of the Saudi Oil Minister
513
2
Longer-Term Saudi Strategy
515
2
Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: Western Estimates and Projections
517
2
Shaping Future Saudi Oil Production Capacity and Exports: The Saudi Approach
519
5
Saudi Ability to Meet Long-Term Increases in Demand
524
1
Changes in Saudi Energy Strategy and Investment Policies
525
15
The Problem of Oil Prices
525
3
The Saudi Debate Over Investment Strategy
528
4
Oil Crash Becomes Oil Boom, and Oil Boom Turns to Oil Crunch
532
3
Future Need for Foreign Investment in Upstream Oil
535
1
Saudi Oil Production Capacity Strategy
536
2
The Impact of Limiting Production to Maintain High Prices and Maximize Oil Export Revenues
538
1
The Impact of a Maximum Market Share Strategy
539
1
Living with Uncertainty, and Doing So with as Little Ideology, and as Much Pragmatism, as Possible
540
11
Saudi Arabia at the Start of the Twenty-First Century: Key Conclusions
551
10
Political Change
552
1
Population, Youth, and a Vision of the Future
553
1
The Need for a New Social Contract
554
4
Oil Wealth or Oil Poverty?
554
1
Creating the Need for a New Social Contract
555
1
The State Budget, Subsidies, and Welfare
556
1
Privatization and Encouraging the Private Sector
556
2
Population and Foreign Workers
558
1
The West and the Pace of Saudi Modernization
558
3
Bibliography
561
10
Index
571